Vegas Whispers: 150th Belmont Stakes Analysis & Selections

Dennis Schneidler-USA TODAY Sports

Well it’s all on the line for Justify, Saturday at Belmont Park in Elmont, New York, as he attempts to become the 13th horse to win the Triple Crown from the one-hole at 1 1/2 miles! Vegas Whispers had a great Preakness hitting the exacta, trifecta (148-1) & superfecta (372-1) finding incredible value backing Justify who only paid $2.80 on top!

Documented Feats:

  • 6 lifetime KY Derby Trifectas

2018 Highlighted Wins

Preakness Stakes, Fountain of Youth Stakes, Tampa Bay Derby, Florida Derby

  • Longshot plays of Bravazo at 15/1 & Tenfold at 25-1 in the Preakness Stakes coming in 2nd behind Justify with a 148 -1 Trifecta & 372-1 Superfecta
  • Longshot play of Promises Fulfilled at 18/1 in the Fountain of Youth Stakes with a 115 -1 Exacta
  • Longshot play 19/1 Quip in the Tampa Bay Derby with a 151-1 Exacta and a 455-1 Trifecta
  • Longshot play Hofburg in the Florida Derby coming in 2nd behind Audible with a 26-1 Exacta & 155-1 Trifecta 

Be sure to check Slack Chat for last minute Vegas Whispers updates minutes before post time Saturday—ONLY available for #ScoutArmy Premium Members.

  • What: $1,500,000 G1 Belmont Stakes
  • Where: Belmont Park, NY
  • Race: Race 11 Post Time: 6:46 EST/ 3:46 PST
  • When: Saturday June 9th, 2018

“Its Justified To Believe Belmont Stakes Payouts Could Pay Tenfold”

Now, as we noted in our preview earlier this week on Justify has thrived on off-tracks so far, winning on sloppy tracks. Well, Bob Baffert must have ties to the rain gods because the forecast for Elmont, New York on Saturday has the Belmont field looking at rainy conditions close to post time. We will update this further, throughout the day on Saturday in the Slack chat that is provided for #ScoutArmy Premium members.

If we do get an off-track once again and Justify gets a completely unopposed path to the lead from the break–the race could very well be over from the opening quarter mile pole.  If this scenario takes place, we could see our second Triple Crown winner since 2015 after going 37 years failing to see one. If we go back and watch Baffert’s American Pharaoh’s near wire-to-wire win in the 2015 Belmont we could see the exact same formula put to use on by Mike Smith Saturday en route to victory.

The formula does land upon three major players who could derail Justify’s path to glory–# 7 Tenfold , #8 Vino Rosso & #9 Noble Indy. The last five weeks of Triple Crown racing has taught us this about off tracks: Justify relishes it, #3 Bravazo & Tenfold handled it extremely well in the Preakness and #4 Hofburg had traffic excuses with it in the Derby. However, Vino Rosso and Noble Indy showed us in the Derby they didn’t like the sloppy surface and could struggle mightily should they see it again on Saturday. The program gives Vino Rosso who is bred for this longer distance a huge shot to hit the board on a fast track, but on an off track he could miss the board completely. The program’s ‘capping formula numbers say that should Justify fail to win–its Tenfold, the son of Curlin, who could be the one to upset him. He came on strong in the lane late in the Preakness to hit the board in third and we could see the same come Saturday afternoon from this rapidly improving colt. I am hoping Hofburg, the wise-guy horse in the Derby, gets the same action here and that many pay Gronkowski attention at the tote board simply on name recognition alone—that would enable the double digit odds I yearn for on Steve Asmussen’s Tenfold.  

My favorite ‘moon-shot’ bomb of the race is Noble Indy who is taking blinkers off for this race. Top trainer Todd Pletcher’s other entry is a colt who is three for his last five, bullet workouts and comes in well rested and at giant odds. This could be the sneakiest horse of all to hit the board and a horse who is bred for this distance that I would not be so easy to dismiss–however once again an off-track moves him down the list so post time weather & track conditions are vital here.


Belmont Stakes Historical Notes of Interest

Historically, the betting favorite has won the Belmont Stakes 42 % of the time but just two of the last fifteen running’s have actually featured a winning post-time favorite: American Pharaoh (2015) and Afleet Alex (2005). At odds of 70-1, Sarava gave bettors the biggest win payout in the history of the Belmont in 2002 returning $142.50 for every $2 win bet. Among all Triple Crown winners the largest winning margin in the Belmont was recorded by Secretariat who won by 31 lengths in 1973. Since 2000, ten Belmont Stakes winners have come off the extended five-week break after racing in the Kentucky Derby and then taking part in the final leg of the Triple Crown. Trainer Bob Baffert has two Belmont Stakes wins, the most recent of which came in 2015 when American Pharoah won the Triple Crown.

My Belmont Stakes Rankings

#1   Justify                  (4/5)

#7   Tenfold                (12-1)

#9   Noble Indy          (30-1)

#8   Vino Rosso          (8-1)

#3  Bravazo                (8-1)

#4   Hofburg              (9-2)

#10 Blended Citizen (15-1)


My Top Contenders: (Morning Line Odds)

  • #1 Justify  (4/5) #7 Tenfold (12-1) #8 Vino Rosso (8-1)

Vegas Whispers Top Selection:

  • #1 Justify  (4/5)

Top Live Longshots:

  • #7 Tenfold (12-1) #9 Noble Indy (30-1) #10 Blended Citizen (15-1)


Exacta P/W:

  • 1 /7,8,9                                                 (Every $1 wager costs $3)

Exacta BOX:

  • 1-3-7-8-9                                             (Every $1 wager costs $20)

Trifecta BOX:

  • 1-7-8-9                                                  (Every $1 wager costs $24)

Trifecta P/W Play:

  • 1,7 / 1,7,8,9 / 3,4,7,8,9,10                    (Every $1 wager costs $30)

Superfecta P/W Play:

  • 1 /7,8,9/3,4,7,8,9,10/3,4,7,8,9,10       (Every .50 cent wager costs $30)
  • 7/1,8,9/1,8,9/1,3,4,8,9,10                    (Every .50 cent wager costs $12)


Good Luck to All! Lets Ca$h!

The Belmont Stakes Field 

(with riders and morning-line odds)

  1. Justify (Mike Smith), 4-5
  2. Free Drop Billy (Robby Albarado), 30-1
  3. Bravazo (Luis Saez), 8-1
  4. Hofburg (Irad Ortiz, Jr), 9-2
  5. Restoring Hope (Florent Geroux), 30-1
  6. Gronkowski (Jose Ortiz, Jr), 12-1
  7. Tenfold (Ricardo Santana, Jr), 12-1
  8. Vino Rosso (John Velazquez), 8-1
  9. Noble Indy (Javier Castellano), 30-1
  10. Blended Citizen (Kyle Frey), 15-1

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About Frank Taddeo 53 Articles
Frankie is a Villanova alumni who created the first Casino Fantasy Sports program in Vegas book. He was the 2019 FFWC 10K Top Gun Champion & 2017 + 2018 Back-to-Back Top 100 Players in World Invit. Champ! He is a sports fanatic, a Vegas whisperer, and a horse racing expert handicapper!