MLB DFS Fastballs & Flyballs 8/20/2019

Tonight we get a full 15 game slate with some solid pitching and games. I have added a few sheets to help show some statistics for recent Pitcher form and a few team that I have interest in tonight. Along with those listed are my favorite pitcher, team to focus and bats.



Pitchers recent form- Last 30 days



Sonny Gray

Gray has an elite 50+% ground ball rate along with a 29% K rate and under 1 HR/9. He has been very good this year and gets a solid matchup tonight against a strike out heavy Padres lineup at 25% vs RHP. The Padres have power, but have been pretty cold as of late. The one bat that could get to Gray would be Renfoe. I would not be surprised if he went yard. Looking at 6 innings 9 Ks and 1 ER:



Aaron Sanchez

Sanchez has pitched well since coming over the the Astros with on exception his last game where he allowed 4 HRs. This was the most HRs he allowed in a game all year. One of the biggest differences was changing his pitch selection and it looks like he went back to his old ways last game. I would think the Astros pitching staff picks up on this and they change back to what they were previously doing with Sanchez. Price is down and I think he will be popular tonight, but like his chances vs the Tigers who have struggled most of the year. Looking st 6 innings 7 Ks and 1-2 ERs.


Cal Quantrill

On the other side of the Gray we get Quantrill pitching tonight. He has actually pitched very well as of late. In the last 28.3 innings allowing a 1.59 ERA and striking out 22 batters. Limiting RHHs and holding them to an elite 58% GB rate will help out tonight vs the Reds who are rolling out 6 RHHs. Aquino has been Red hot and could take him deep, but I can see him doin well enough tonight otherwise.

** Kyle Freeland out pitched Jalen Beeks. I see Freeland putting up 15 FPs tonight.


LA Dodgers vs Sean Reid-Foley

In limited innings this year and last Foley has allowed a high FB rate along with a 1.5 HRs/9 to LHHs. He faces a hot Dodger team with a lot of power upside. Over the last 7 days Bellinger, Turner, Pollcak, Smith and Beaty have all been hitting well with Muncy and Seager hitting 3 HRs and Pederson with power upside in this matchup.


ATL Braves vs Elieser Hernandez

*Ronald Acuna has 8 HRs in 15 games vs the Marlins this year with a .328 average and 15 HRs in 34 career games with a .336 average.

Hernadez has been pretty bad on the road with a 7.20 ERA and a 3.6 HRs/9. He throws mostly fastballs and most of the team hits the fastball well.  Freeman, Joyce, Albies and  McCann all hit from the left side where Hernandez has struggled the most, but Donaldson and Acuna also have power vs RHP.


Also consider both sides of the LAA/TEX game with hot weather, excellent hitters park and 2 sub par pitchers.


Low Ownership

SEA Mariners vs Jalen Beeks

On the year the Mariners have not hit well vs LHP, but as of late they are ranked 2nd in HRs and have a few batters that are red hot. Beeks is priced down on both sites, so I can see him pickup up some ownership tonight. He has actually not been that good over his last 5 games allowing 8, 5 and 4 runs in 3 of those 5 games. Austin Nola, Tom Murphy, Kyle Seager and Tim Lopes(has been leading off) would be my stack tonight. Murphy has 5 HRs over his last 3 games with 2 multi HR games. Nola has hit HRs in 3 straight games, Seager actually hits better vs LHP and Beeks has been worse vs LHHS, which makes his sneaky. Also, Seager has a 13 game hit streak going with a .345 average and 5 HRs over his last 7 games. Last, Tim Lopes has been leading off and has some shown to hit LHP well in limited at bats.


I also like the

COL Rockies vs Alex Young

Desmond, Story and Arenado all hit LHP well.



Andre Benintendi

Red Sox take on Aaron Nola tonight who has been pretty good as of late. Nola throws the curve over 30% of the time and Benintendi is ranked 2nd hitting against this pitch. He and Jackie Bradley Jr. are they 2 I have Internet in on the Red Sox as they both hit the pitch well.


Max Kepler

Kepler has been cold as of late, but tonight he faces Reynaldo Lopez who has been good as of late, but got hit up a bit last game. Lopez throws mostly Fastballs and Kepler hits them very well. Leading off tonight at home and I like his chances to go yard.


Paul Goldschmidt

Goldschmidt hits LHP well and has excellent BvP vs Gio going 10-17 against him. On the year he has over .400 wOBA and .300 ISO with a over a 40% HC rate. It is going to be warm in STL tonight with some wind blowing out. Like his chances of going yard a few times tonight.


Javier Baez

Baez gets an excellent matchup vs Beede tonight wo has been getting smashed by hitters from both sides of the plate. Also, Beede throws the changeup as he second option and Baez crushes this pitch along with Schwarber who I have interest in as well.


*Jorge Soler & Hunter Dozier have an excellent matchup vs Bundy tonight In an excellent hitters park. I like both to go yard.


Tommy Edman/Dexter Fowler

Roberto Perez

Scott Kingery hits LHP well and Johnson is not any good.

Jonathan Lucroy

Garret Cooper/Brian Anderson

Jake Cave