MLB DFS Fastballs & Flyballs 7/18/2019

This article is a quick overview tonight’s slate. I give a few pitching options l




Trevor Bauer

The Tigers are a team you can pick on most nights especially with RHP. They don’t have a lot of power and strike out at a 25+ % clip. Last night Clevinger went 6 innings and struck out 12 batters while only allowing 1 ER. Bauer has pitched against the Tigers twice this year one CGSO with 8 Ks and the other he did not make it out of the 4 inning. At home this year Bauer has struggled a bit, especially vs LHHs with a 2.7 HRs/9 (Kepler has 5/10 HRs). The Tigers got the best of Bauer last time, but I don’t see them doing that again. Looking at 7 innings 10 Ks and 2 ERs.


Noah Syndergaard

Synderaard has bee solid vs LHHs this year and he faces a left handed heavy Giants lineup in a park that favors pitchers.


Dark Horse

Merrill Kelly

I am interested in Kelly for a few reasons. First, his price has dropped 2.4k since his last start. Second, he pitches better at home with a 3.09 ERA, increase in K rate at 24% and a minimal 3% walk rate. Also, his HRs/9 are lower at home. Over his last 9 games he has pitched 6 innings or more in 7 of those 9. The Brewers are definitely a powerful team, but have been weaker on the road this year with a .233 average and 24% K rate. Over the past 30 days they have only hit .188 on the road. I don’t expect Kelly to get out of this game clean, but I can see him going  5-6 innings with 2 ERs and 5-6 Ks. Worth the price.




Houston Astros

The Astros have an elite matchup vs Matt Harvey tonight. This year at home Harvey has been getting smashed allowing 2.5 HRs/9 and a 8.91 ERA along with a low K rate.  Harvey is much worse vs LHHs, but allows power to both sides. Chirinos is one of my favorite C options and Marisnick has been hitting well making them both value plays. Astros have a powerful lineup and could put up 10 runs again tonight.


Other options: Minnesota Twins vs Fiers.

Cruz, Gonzalez, Cron, Arraez or Sano



George Springer

Springer is crushing the ball vs RHP this year with over a .400 wOBA and .300 ISO. He has hit well vs the Angels pitching his series with 3 HRs in 3 games  and a good chance he goes yard again tonight vs Harvey.  On the year Harvey has allowed a 2.5 HRs/9 and a 8.91 ERA at home with a low K rate. This is an excellent spot for Springer and the Astros tonight.


Jake Lamb

The battered ball data over the past week or so suggests that Lamb will go on a tear. His HC, hit distance and FB ratios are all on the rise. He is facing Zach Davies who has some issues with LHHs allowing a .340 wOBA and 40% FB rate. Davies also throws the sinker over 50% of the time and Lamb absolutely destroys this pitch. Lamb going yard tonight!


Matt Olson

Olson has a 12 game hit streak going right now with 4 HRs in that time frame. Tonight he faces Kyle Gibson who has been up and down most of the year.

Gibson throws sinkers and sliders about 40% of the time and Olson has done very well vs both of these pitches. Nice park upgrade for the As tonight.



Jesse Winker- Hudson allows close to a .400 wOBA to LHHs. Winker crushes RHP and sinkers.

Andrelton Simmons- Miley throws cutter 50% of the time. Simmons crushes this pitch.

Jake Marisnick- hot bat and price down.

Robinson Chirinos- Favorite Catcher

Scooter Gennett- similar to Winker. Gennett HR coming soon.

Ryan Zimmerman

Dexter Fowler