NFL Week 16 Expert Picks

December 23, 2017 Steve Renner DFS, DFS - NFL

Expert Picks			Adam Ronis (@AdamRonis)	Steve Renner (@Steve_Renner)
CASH	QB		Cam Newton	Philip Rivers
	RB		Kareem Hunt	Alvin Kamara
	WR		Michael Thomas	Robert Woods
	TE		Travis Kelce	Travis Kelce
	DEF		Panthers	Panthers

GPP	QB		Russell Wilson	Russell Wilson
	RB		Ezekiel Elliott	Alvin Kamara
	WR		Doug Baldwin	Keenan Allen
	TE		Antonio Gates	Delanie Walker
	DEF		Chiefs	Cardinals

CASH	QB		Cam Newton	Drew Brees
	RB		Alvin Kamara	Alvin Kamara
	WR		Jarvis Landry	Robert Woods
	TE		Rob Gronkowski	Tyler Kroft
	DEF		Panthers	Cardinals

GPP	QB		Jared Goff	Russell Wilson
	RB		Christian McCaffrey	Alvin Kamara
	WR		Doug Baldwin	Kendall Wright
	TE		Antonio Gates	Tyler Kroft
	DEF		Chiefs	Cardinals

FADE OF THE WEEK		n/a	Julio Jones	Todd Gurley

Expert Picks		Fuego Steve (@FuegoSteve)	Mark Deming (@YoMarkDeming)
CASH	QB	Cam Newton	Drew Brees
	RB	Kareem Hunt	Ezekiel Elliott
	WR	Michael Thomas	Brandin Cooks
	TE	Travis Kelce	Greg Olsen
	DEF	Jaguars	Panthers

GPP	QB	Tom Brady	Dak Prescott
	RB	Alvin Kamara	Joe Mixon
	WR	Keenan Allen	Robert Woods
	TE	Jimmy Graham	Tyler Kroft
	DEF	Chiefs	Saints

CASH	QB	Cam Newton	Cam Newton
	RB	Melvin Gordon	Kareem Hunt
	WR	Jarvis Landry	Michael Thomas
	TE	Travis Kelce	Travis Kelce
	DEF	Jaguars	Bears

GPP	QB	Russell Wilson	Andy Dalton
	RB	Dion Lewis	Alex Collins
	WR	Michael Thomas	Tyreek Hill
	TE	Antonio Gates	Eric Ebron
	DEF	Panthers	Cardinals

FADE OF THE WEEK		Fournette	Fournette

Note: “Scout Optimizer” is from the top projected player using the Optimizer at that position. Use Projected setting for Cash and Ceiling for GPP rankings.

FullTime DFS

About Steve Renner 1215 Articles

Steve has been a part of the Full Time DFS team from the beginning when we migrated over from Scout Fantasy Sports. As a former contributor on the message forums at Scout he developed a following for his unique writing on MLB DFS. He continued this over with the launch of FullTimeDFS and built a team and platform focused on the common every day DFS player and not those who are just looking for a quick win or to build out MME in every sport for screenshot glory. Steve (sdchickens) specializes in MLB (Dongers Club), NHL (Slap Shot) and NFL (The Ambush). On a personal level he also loves College Sports and will dabble in them for DFS purposes a ton. And yes, he's an avid Saints fan.

2024 Los Angeles Rams Fantasy Preview
July 26, 2024
2024 Los Angeles Rams Fantasy Preview The 2023 Los Angeles Rams surprised many by winning 10 games and clinching a spot in the postseason after finishing the previous season with a disappointing 5-12 record. It didn’t hurt that the Ram’s […]

2024 Los Angeles Rams Fantasy Preview The 2023 Los Angeles Rams surprised many by winning 10 games and clinching a spot in the postseason after finishing the previous season with a disappointing 5-12 record. It didn't hurt that the Ram's offense finished in the top 12 in passing yards, rushing yards, and points per game.
One of the biggest reasons the Rams doubled their win total was Matthew Stafford's health. Stafford (3,965/24/11) managed to play in 15 contests after playing in just nine the season before. Only Lamar Jackson completed more "Hero" throws among quarterbacks who attempt at least 275 passes.

Last year during the draft, the Rams selected Puka Nacua (105/1486/6) in the fifth round, and all he did was put together the most outstanding season a rookie wide receiver has ever had. Nacua accounted for a 32.9% air yards share and a target of 26.8% (11th-most) last season as Cooper Kupp missed five games. He also averaged 2.75 yards per route run in 2023, the ninth most among receivers. It's hard to imagine Nacua repeating those numbers, especially with a healthy Kupp, but he is still worthy of being a WR1 this season.

Despite Kupp only playing in 12 contests, the former triple-crown winner still finished the 2023 fantasy season as the WR39 and was 25th in fantasy points per game in PPR formats. Father time remains undefeated; maybe it was the injuries, or perhaps it's part of turning 30, but Kupp saw a career low in his yards per route run (1.77) last season, something worth monitoring.

If Puka Nacua was the biggest surprise for fantasy managers, what do we call Kyren Williams? Williams (228/1,144/12) finished as the RB5 in PPR formats with 255 fantasy points despite missing four games. Only Christian McCafferys 24.5 fantasy points per contest were more than Williams 21.3.

Williams was a bell-cow for the Rams, accounting for nearly 48% of all the touches in the run game. One reason for concern is that the club did draft Blake Corum, who had also proven to be a workhorse over his last two seasons at Michigan with more than 500 carries and 2,700 rushing yards.

Tyler Higbee (47/497/2) isn't going to move the needle much in fantasy. Sure, he'll give you some TE1-type weeks this season, but the volume is not going to be there to make him much more than a TE2 on your roster.

Quarterbacks
QB MATTHEW STAFFORD - QUALITY BACKUP
Now 36, Stafford has settled in as a reliable streaming option but is unlikely to revert back to his high-volume role from yesteryear. Last season, the Rams were top-10 in points and offense but Stafford was firmly outside the top-12 fantasy ranks. The emergence of WR Puka Nacua helped Stafford rebound from a down 2022 showing. Nacua and Cooper Kupp give the Rams a formidable duo and help ensure that Stafford's floor remains safe. He offers nothing as a runner and tends to turn the ball over a tad much, but Stafford can be a reliable source of points as a bye-week fill-in or as a QB2 in Superflex leagues....

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2024 Arizona Cardinals Fantasy Preview
July 26, 2024
2024 Arizona Cardinals Fantasy Preview The Arizona Cardinals have now produced back-to-back four-win seasons. Kyler Murray returns, which is excellent news for the Cardinals, who finished 24th in points per game and 26th in passing yards last season. Murray will […]

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2024 Los Angeles Chargers Fantasy Preview
July 25, 2024
2024 Los Angeles Chargers Fantasy Preview After finishing 5-12, changes were evident. Los Angeles fired GM Tom Telesco and head coach Brandon Staley and then went after Jim Harbaugh, the biggest name on the coaching market. If Harbaugh’s previous stints […]

2024 Los Angeles Chargers Fantasy Preview After finishing 5-12, changes were evident. Los Angeles fired GM Tom Telesco and head coach Brandon Staley and then went after Jim Harbaugh, the biggest name on the coaching market. If Harbaugh's previous stints at Stanford, San Fransisco, and Michigan have taught us anything, his teams are built to play the trenches and run the ball. Adding Greg Roman as an offensive coordinator ensures that this Chargers offense will emphasize the run game, so the more than 320 vacated targets may not matter here.
With a change in offensive philosophy, the value of long-time Charger wide receivers has shifted in this new offense. Keenan Allen and Mike Williams have been replaced in the draft by promising new additions. Second-round selection Ladd McConkey, and a pair of seventh-round picks, Brendan Rice and Cornelius Johnson, bring fresh talent and potential to the team's offense.

Looking at the Chargers' current depth chart, Justin Herbert's top three options are Joshua Palmer, who had 38 receptions and 581 yards last season, second-year wideout Quentin Johnson, who had just 431 receiving yards and 38 receptions after being selected in the first round of the NFL draft last year, and Ladd McConkey. McConkey may overtake Palmer and Johnson as Herbert's favorite target immediately.

In games where Herbert didn't have Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, he still found success by spreading the ball around. Herbert got all his receivers involved by not having to funnel his targets into his top options. However, don't expect him to put up top-five fantasy production this season with the offense that Roman likes to run. Herbert completed 297 of his 456 attempts for 3,134 yards in 13 games last year. Suppose you draft Herbert as your first quarterback. In that case, you must give him the Kirk Cousins treatment by adding another solid quarterback option later in the draft and potentially playing the better matchups.

Harbaugh is going to love RB Gus Edwards. His 13 rushing scores last season were tied for the third most by any back, and he averaged 4.1 yards per carry, which was the first time in his career he had averaged less than five yards per carry. LA also brought in J.K. Dobbins, who is recovering from a season-ending Achilles injury. Keep an eye on sixth-round Troy RB Kimani Vidal, who could emerge as a serious dark horse in this backfield.

At tight end, neither Will Dissly nor Hayden Hurst offers much fantasy value, as the duo combined for just 356 receiving yards on 35 receptions. If you have to draft one of the two, Hurst could be a nice tight-end two with some upside.

Quarterbacks
QB JUSTIN HERBERT - SOLID/SAFE PICK
While Justin Herbert remains one of the top young quarterbacks in the NFL, his fantasy prospects are less certain. With Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman running the offense, the 2024 Chargers will be far less reliant on the pass. In Herbert's first four years, the team ranked first in plays per game. Harbaugh and Roman's 49ers (2011-2014) ranked 31st in pace and no higher than 29th in pass attempts. Additionally, a mass exodus of veteran pass catchers is further proof of the potential lack of volume. Herbert did compile a 110.8 QB Rating in play-action in 2023, so he's capable of being solid if the Chargers can establish the run. But he's no longer a locked-in QB1. ADVICE: High-end QB2...

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2024 Las Vegas Raiders Fantasy Preview
July 24, 2024
2024 Las Vegas Raiders Fantasy Preview Rumors ahead of the 2024 NFL draft speculated that new head coach Antonio Pierce and the Las Vegas Raiders were in the market for a rookie quarterback after experimenting with Jimmy Garappolo and Aiden […]

2024 Las Vegas Raiders Fantasy Preview Rumors ahead of the 2024 NFL draft speculated that new head coach Antonio Pierce and the Las Vegas Raiders were in the market for a rookie quarterback after experimenting with Jimmy Garappolo and Aiden O'Connell last season. Unfortunately, they were unable to land the targets in which they coveted. Fortunately, though, they brought in a quarterback via free agency who has plenty of what Pierce is looking for in Gardner Minshew.
Wherever Minshew goes, a rookie quarterback is sure to follow. Last year, the Colts drafted Anthony Richardson after signing Minshew. Technically, Jalen Hurts was an Eagle before Minshew, but the Jaguars did draft Trevor Lawrence to replace Minshew in Jacksonville.

Minshew needs to get the credit he deserves. In 37 career starts, over 49 games played, he has thrown more touchdown passes (59) and fewer interceptions (24) than the generational Trevor Lawrence. That is the kind of production from the quarterback position Davante Adams was not getting from Garappolo or O'Connell last season.

Regardless of whoever lines up under center, Adams is a wide receiver you can trust when selecting at the start of the second round of your fantasy drafts. While the 31-year-old receiver is entering his 11th season, he is still producing. Adams has posted five 1000-yard seasons over the last six years, including 1,144 yards on 103 receptions in 2023. All that production resulted in a fantasy WR11 fantasy finish a season ago.

After Adams, it becomes interesting. Jakobi Meyers had some excellent fantasy value as a flex option heading into the draft. However, the Raiders' selection of Georgia tight end Brock Bowers puts a cap on Meyers' fantasy potential entering the 2024 season. Last year, Meyers averaged 13.1 fantasy points per game. But with Bowers' ability to play in the slot, it's hard to envision Meyers having that kind of success when asked to line out wide.

Bowers will likely be better for the Raiders than he will for your fantasy teams. In three seasons at Georgia, he finished with 2,538 yards and 26 touchdowns on 175 passes. Bowers is an excellent complement for Adams, as he finished last season with 56 receptions, six touchdowns, and 714 yards after returning in October from ankle surgery.

RB Zamir White finds himself well-positioned to have a top-15-caliber season at the running back position. From weeks 15 through 18, White would average 23.3 touches while churning out 114.3 per game, finishing as the RB12 in fantasy over that stretch. White also would finish sixth in yards after contact per attempt, 13th in explosive run rate, and 17th in success rate. White is an intriguing mid-round target.

Quarterbacks
QB GARDNER MINSHEW - BYE WEEK FILL-IN
The Raiders plan to have Gardner Minshew and Aidan O'Connell compete for the team's starting role this summer. "That's the plan, to have both those guys really compete through the offseason program, but more so in training camp, and we'll see how it plays out," said GM Tom Telesco. Minshew is considered the favorite to win that role. He was slightly more effective than O'Connell and signed the contract of a player expected to start. Regardless of who wins, Las Vegas will be a run-first offense under Antonio Pierce and Luke Getsy. The Raiders QB spot should be avoided until there is some clarity. ADVICE: Only draftable in deep Superflex leagues.
QB AIDAN O'CONNELL - LOW POTENTIAL
ADVICE: O'Connell passing metrics were very similar to Gardner Minshew last season. He'll be given every opportunity to beat out the newcomer in the preseason. The ceiling isn't very high, but whoever wins the Raiders' starting job can be a weekly streamer...

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