Scouting the NBA 12/1/17


Plays of the Day


Value: Tyus Jones has been the man for Minnesota and will be worth a look as long as Jeff Teague (Achilles) remains out. The Duke product is averaging 11.25 PPG, 6.5 APG and 4 SPG over his last four appearances and is playing huge minutes with Teague out.


Fade: Kevin Durant has a solid floor in a plus matchup at Orlando, but he hasn’t flashed a high ceiling in matchups that the Warriors don’t seem to “circle on their calendars” and it’s hard to imagine him blowing up in this matchup.


Point Guards

Steph Curry – (9,900 DK/9,700 FD)

Steph came alive late to torch the Lakers in overtime and he should carry that momentum into a fantastic matchup tonight. Orlando’s been horrendous defensively of late and gave up the second-most FPPG (58.05) to opposing PGs last week, along with the fourth-most FPPG (48.95) to that position on the season. Curry averaged 26 PPG on 53.3 percent FG shooting over two meetings with the Magic last year and only played 28.8 MPG in those easy wins, but the Dubs are rarely blowing teams out right now and could surprise by getting into yet another close one down the stretch.


Kyle Lowry – (8,100 DK/8,500 FD)

At a much cheaper price tag on DK tonight, Lowry carries nearly as much upside as Curry and Russ Westbrook. With averages of 25 PPG, 9.5 RPG and 6.3 APG over his last four appearances, Lowry is carrying the Raptors offense and he’s shooting an unsustainable, but impressive 56.8 percent (21-of-37) from downtown during that span. Indiana gives up the ninth-most PPG (107.8) and eighth-most APG (23.2) while playing at a surprisingly fast pace this year, so Lowry has a good chance to stay hot against under sized PG Darren Collison.


Potential Value

Michael Carter-Williams – (4,400 DK/5,400 FD)

MCW would immediately become a viable value play should Kemba Walker (shoulder) miss another contest.



Elfrid Payton – (6,100 DK/7,200 FD)

Payton finally seems to be over his hamstring injury and he could thrive in a fast-paced matchup against the Warriors.


Shooting Guards

Kelly Oubre Jr. – (4,800 DK/5,000 FD)

With John Wall (knee) out and defenses keying in on Bradley Beal, several Wizards have stepped up, but none have seen as great of an increase in production as Kelly Oubre Jr. The third-year man out of Kansas dropped a career-high 22 points over just 29 minutes in a loss at Philly on Wednesday and should continue to see steady run against a Pistons team that gives up the seventh-most FPPG (43.03) to opposing SFs this season and Oubre sees a 5.2 percent rise in usage rate (to 24.8%) when Wall is off the floor.


Tyus Jones – (4,700 DK/5,700 FD)

His status depends completely on that of Jeff Teague (Achilles), but with Teague inactive over the last four contests, Tyus Jones has been the man for Minnesota. The Duke product is averaging 11.25 PPG, 6.5 APG and 4 SPG during that span and his price tag remains low despite the fact that he’s playing huge minutes in the absence of Teague. In spite of a tough matchup against Russell Westbrook and the Thunder, Jones will essentially remain a must play should Teague sit out another game.


Potential Value

Malik Monk – (4,200 DK/3,900 FD)

Monk has been a boom-bust option but he could become much safer if Jeremy Lamb (knee) and/or Kemba Walker sits out tonight’s tilt in Miami.



Donovan Mitchell – (6,900 DK/6,800 FD)

Mitchell would likely be the primary reason the Jazz stay competitive at home against the Pelicans tonight, so he makes for a great correlation play with Anthony Davis or DeMarcus Cousins.


Small Forwards

Paul George – (8,200 DK/8,500 FD)

If Westbrook is at all bothered by his hand injury tonight, he could be more willing to defer to the Thunder’s secondary scorer in Paul George. He broke out of a slump with 22 points on 7-of-17 FG shooting on Wednesday and draws a plus matchup tonight against a Wolves team that ranks 26th in defensive rating and dead last in opponents FG shooting (.483%) this season. George has produced 37 points, 12 assists and 11 rebounds over two appearances with the Wolves this year and he’s supplementing his scoring with nice peripheral stats, as he leads the league at 2.8 SPG.


Lance Stephenson – (4,500 DK/5,200 FD)

Here’s another cheap option at forward to help you pay up for studs at the other positions tonight. Lance Stephenson continues to exceed value and prove that his recent production was no fluke, as he’s working alongside Pacers main scorer Victor Oladipo and averaging 13.2 PPG on 61 percent FG shooting (25-of-41) over his last five appearances. He can go cold at any time, but remains a viable GPP play in this price range with tangible upside.


Potential Value

Bojan Bogdanovic – (4,600 DK/4,500 FD)

Bogdanovic has been lights out from downtown lately and could see more usage if Myles Turner (knee) can’t go tonight.



Otto Porter – (6,500 DK/7,000 FD)

Porter slowed down in a road tilt at Philly on Wednesday but is still a strong play in any format with Wall out.

Power Forwards

Draymond Green – (7,400 DK/8,100 FD)

Some may be tempted to roll with Aaron Gordon ($7,600/$7,900) after he blew up for 40 points and 15 boards in a home win over the Thunder on Wednesday, but Draymond could take that recent output as a challenge and really step his game up. The former Defensive Player of the Year held Gordon to 10 points on 4-of-13 FG shooting in their last meeting and is coming off a near triple double with 15 points, 11 boards and 9 assists in an overtime win over the Lakers. Orlando ranks 25th in total rebounding, gives up the third-most PPG (110.9) and plays at the sixth-fastest pace in the NBA, so this is a great matchup for a stat-stuffer like Green.

Kelly Olynyk – (4,400 DK/4,900 FD)

There’s another big man worth considering as a value in Miami tonight, but Olynyk should be the safer bet to soak up minutes and production with Hassan Whiteside (knee) out over the next couple weeks. Olynyk boasts a 21 percent usage rate and averages 0.93 FPs per minute with Whiteside off the floor this year and he’s averaging a solid 11.25 PPG over his last four appearances. Those points have come in limited minutes, while Kelly-O averages 17.3 points and 10 rebounds per 36 minutes this year, so he could definitely exceed value if given a full slate of run.


Potential Value


Taj Gibson – (5,700 DK/5,500 FD)

Gibson has been surprisingly productive on a team full of scorers in Minnesota and he should be motivated to face his former teammates in Oklahoma City tonight.




Derrick Favors – (6,500 DK/7,400 FD)

Favors has been great recently with Rudy Gobert out, but draws his toughest matchup in some time against Anthony Davis and the Pelicans.





DeMarcus Cousins – (10,900 DK/10,700 FD)

We’ve been fading him rather consistently over the past couple of weeks, but it could be time to pounce by using Cousins at a diminished price tag against a Jazz team that’s reeling without Rudy Gobert (knee). Utah’s been burned by talented centers of late, giving up a combined 11 assists to Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets backup bigs earlier this week, and Cousins is rocking an impressive 25.3 percent assist rate along with his 33.2 percent usage rate this season. He’s established a solid floor even if he’s failed to meet value of late, and he could blow up in this plus spot.

Dwight Howard – (7,500 DK/7,900 FD)

The absence of Hassan Whiteside (knee) is going to hurt for Miami and makes Howard an even more appealing play tonight. He bounced back from a slow game with 22 points and 10 boards in a tough spot at Toronto and now he faces a Heat team that’s going to be far more vulnerable down low without its starting center. Seemingly healthy for the first time in years, Howard’s usage rate (25%) is his highest since his last season in Orlando in 2011-12 and he could see even more volume if Kemba Walker misses tonight’s tilt.



Potential Value


Bam Adebayo – (4,100 DK/4,700 FD)

Adebayo could play more minutes than Kelly Olynyk for Miami if he does a better job of banging on the boards with Howard.




Jonas Valanciunas – (4,800 DK/4,500 FD)

JoVal appears to still be on a minutes limit as he works back from an ankle injury, but he could still exceed value against a Pacers team that’s given up the second-most FPPG to opposing centers and could be missing starter Myles Turner.

About Fuego Steve 295 Articles
Fuego Steve has rapidly become one of the best DFS players in the industry for MLB, NBA, and the NFL. Just over the past year he has won numerous GPPs, including three qualifiers. Fuego was a live finalist at the 2017 & 2018 Fanduel Basketball Championships. Mainly a tournament player, he specializes in multi and single-entry gpps, roster construction, game theory, qualifiers, short slates and has a knack for projecting ownership percentages.