Week 4 Thursday Night Football Fantasy & Betting Preview

Dr. Roto and Frankie Fantasy team up to preview Week 4's Thursday Night Football matchup between the Philadelphia Eagles and Green Bay Packers!

Week 4 TNF

Week 4 Thursday Night Football Preview

Quarterbacks:

Aaron Rodgers

Rodgers has been strangely mediocre thus far in 2019 and I wonder if that’s just him not understanding Matt LaFleur’s offense, or is there something else? The Eagles weakness is their secondary, so I think that Rodgers will do his best to challenge them with some deep routes. Start Rodgers with confidence, but I am not sure that he has the breakout game just yet.

Carson Wentz

Green Bay’s defense has been solid all year long, but they have faced Mitch Trubisky, Kirk Cousins, and Joe Flacco. None of them are anywhere near the player that Wentz is. This should be a good test of the Packers defense. I think Wentz plays well on Thursday, but I see more of 250 passing yards and 1-2 TDs than I do a breakout game. 

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Running Backs

Miles Sanders

I love Sanders and think he is this close to breaking out and having himself a 100-yard night. I am not sure that it will happen this week, but it will happen soon. He was more involved in the passing game in Week 3, but that might have been because Jeffery and D-Jax were out. He is still a fringe starter at this point until Doug Pederson goes all-in and starts to give him 18-20 touches a game like he deserves.

Jordan Howard

Howard has secured himself a place in the Eagles running back by committee as a short yardage and goal line specialist. For that reason alone, he is useful in standard leagues. PPR owners should probably look elsewhere for their RB2.

Darren Sproles

Sproles only has value if the Eagles are playing from behind. I would look for other options.

Jamaal Williams

Packers Head Coach Matt LaFleur has wanted to get Williams more involved recently, and in Week 3 he out-touched Aaron Jones. I have never been a fan of Williams and consider him a “JAG.” Look for about 40-50 yards from him with an outside shot at a TD.

Aaron Jones

You should probably play Jones, but admittedly, I am nervous. He is losing touches to Williams and is dealing with a shoulder injury. The good news is that he looks to be the goal line back, so even if he doesn’t have a big stat line, he could easily score a TD.

Wide Receivers:

Alshon Jeffery

Jeffery will play on Thursday night after missing Week 3 with an injured calf. It’s hard to recommend him fully, as calf muscles tend to resurface, and it wouldn’t shock me to see his snap count reduced. Play Jeffery if your receiving corps is depleted, but if you have other options, I would use them.

Nelson Agholor

Agholor is supremely frustrating to watch. On the one hand, he makes the most difficult of catches look easy, and on the other hand he drops the easiest balls thrown right at him. To his credit, he has been generally productive when given the chance to play and with DJax out once again, he should see a lot of targets coming his way. Look for him to have about 65-75 yards tonight and at least five receptions. 

Mack Hollins

When both Jeffery and DJax were out last week, I used Hollins in deeper leagues, and he came through with 10 fantasy points. With Jeffery back, it’s hard to predict him to have anything more than a late garbage time TD.

Davante Adams

I think we have the potential for a breakout game for Adams tonight. He has yet to find the end zone this season, so statistically, he’s due to score. I think we could see 100+ receiving yards and 2 TDs if it becomes a high scoring affair.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling

MVS has become the clear WR2 for the Packers and had a dominant performance against the Broncos is Week 3. I wouldn’t expect another game like last week, but he should get about five receptions for 75 yards in this game.

Geronimo Allison

Allison has five receptions on seven targets this season. Unless you are dealing with a myriad of injuries, you probably need to look elsewhere.

Tight Ends:

Jimmy Graham

It’s hard to trust Graham in this game as the Eagles have been somewhat stingy thus far to opposing tight ends. I would consider starting him in standard formats, but not in PPR.

Zach Ertz

The Packers are the best team in the NFL against opposing tight ends, but I am not sure that Noah Fant and Kyle Rudolph are anywhere close to being as good as Zach Ertz. I would start Ertz without any hesitation whatsoever and assume he will get about 16-20 fantasy points.

  • Dr. Roto

And now a Thursday Night Football betting preview brought to you by Vegas’ own Frankie Fantasy!

Week 4 Thursday Night Football Sharp Betting Play

  • 101 Philadelphia Eagles (46)
  • 102 Green Bay Packers -4
  • Thursday, September 26, 2019
  • Lambeau Field

If the sharp action is any indication for what we are in store for Thursday night, all fantasy owners need to employ all Packers skill position players. According to the information provided by Vegas Whispers, the sharps are backing the Packers laying the -4 points. The Packers (3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS) will be looking to stay undefeated as they take on an injury riddled Eagles team. Philadelphia (1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS) has burned ATS backers in every trip to the counter in 2019. The sharps are continuing to follow the trends backing the red hot Packers and fading the injured ‘Birds.

The Eagles enter the game on a short week allowing the fourth-worst passing yards per game (293.7), while the Packers come in allowing the second fewest points on the season (35). Rodgers, who will be facing an Eagles club with only two sacks in three games, could see his outstanding numbers numbers over the last four games against NFC East teams (10 TDs / 0 INT) continue to improve in Week 4. Fantasy owners should expect solid performances from Rodgers, Adams and Valdes-Scantling in this one. On the other side, the Eagles will once again be missing WR DeSean Jackson but will be welcoming back WR Alshon Jeffery. Ertz and Agholar should post double digit PPR points, but touchdown expectations should be tempered. 

Trends:

  • The Eagles are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings with the Packers
  • The Under is 7-2 in the last 8 meetings
  • The Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings
  • The Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games
  • The Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Green Bay
  • The Under is 9-4 in Packers last 13 games played

THE PLAY: 102 Green Bay -4

  • Frankie Fantasy