Time To Fade The Favorite In The Florida Derby? Vegas Whispers Kentucky Derby Prep Preview & Selections
We have had a monster start to the Kentucky Derby Prep trail here at Vegas Whispers in March as we scored by hitting on two value longshot plays: Promises Fulfilled at 18/1 in the Fountain of Youth Stakes followed by 19-1 Quip in the Tampa Bay Derby. We cashed nicely in the FOY Stakes when we gave out a whopping 115 -1 exacta, but we were only getting started as we returned three weeks ago with a 151-1 Exacta and a whopping 455-1 Trifecta in the Tampa Bay Derby! Well, in the middle of Saturday’s two Final Four must-see games, we get treated to another Derby Prep race that has produced 4 of the last 10 Kentucky Derby winners!
What: $1,100,000 G1 Florida Derby
Where: Gulfstream Park, Fla
Race: Race 14 Post Time: 6:36 EST/ 3:36 PST
When: Saturday, March 31, 2018
In terms of form, this a wide open Florida Derby with three horses that seem to catch your eye by the numbers: #8 Audible, #6 Catholic Boy & #4 Promises Fulfilled. Well if you’re looking to find a way to beat the Holy Bull chalk favorite Audible look no further than his draw into the race. Horses drawing to the outside going two turns at this track have perennially burned up wallets at the finish line. Just this season alone, the 8 hole in has won a mere 10 times in 70 tries or for us numbers guys that’s a terrible 14% win rate. Trainer Todd Pletcher who sends out Audible sees many comparisons to his Always Dreaming who took down the Kentucky Derby last year. Even though he may live up to his top ten ranking in the Derby Future pools here in Vegas, I honestly can not back this horse in the win spot on any tickets at such short odds with so much speed to his inside and this really bad outside draw.
Look who is back again? Our boy who we backed in the FOY Stakes at 18/1—Promises Fulfilled. He was the speed of that race and went to the lead on the front end and never looked back. I envision the same thing happening here, but unfortunately, the oddsmakers have caught up to us as his morning line price is now 3-1 & I think several others won’t let him rate alone uncontested this time around. Dale Romans will make sure Robbie Albarado guns to the front at the opening pole, but I cant back him at short odds on any win tickets. Let’s not sleep on the runner-up to Promises Fulfilled in the FOY–Strike Power. He has plenty of speed, and from the 1 hole he could upset this field easily, but I am not backing him alone on any win tickets either.
With Loyola Chicago & Villanova both in the Final Four in the NCAA on Easter weekend, how can we overlook the #6 Catholic Boy? He comes in sharp off his win in the 2017 Remsen, and don’t dismiss the fact that jockey Irad Ortiz Jr jumps off his FOY score on Promises Fulfilled in favor of the mount on Catholic Boy this weekend. As horseplayers know these kind of moves should never be overlooked.
However, its the three longshots I am playing #7 Hofburg, #9 Mississippi and #5 Storm Runner. I cant pass up on these, and the odds to at least hit the board and is a must use on all exotic tickets for me. If these three stay true to our formula we could be looking at the highest score we had to date here on ScoutFantasySports.com & those who have been following Vegas Whispers know we like to score big!
- #8 Audible (8/5) ##6 Catholic Boy (7/2) #1 Strike Power (4/1) #4 Promises Fulfilled
- #5 Storm Runner (20/1) #7 Hofburg (20/1) #9 Mississippi (12/1)
Exacta Box: 7-9-5-8-6
Trifecta Box: 7-9-5-8-6
Trifecta P/W Play: 5,7,9/ 1,4,5,6,7,8,9 / 1,4,5,6,7,8,9
Florida Derby Field: Morning Line Odds
- 1 – Strike Power – 4-1
- 2 – Millionaire Maker – 50-1
- 3 – Tip Sheet– 30-1
- 4 – Promises Fulfilled – 3-1
- 5 – Storm Runner – 20-1
- 6 – Catholic Boy– 7/2
- 7 – Hofburg – 20-1
- 8 – Audible – 8/5
- 9 – Mississippi – 12-1