UFC 225 Fantasy MMA DFS Preview
What’s up Scout Army?! It’s good to be back and breaking down some fights. As always, hit me up on Twitter (@Y2CASEY) anytime or in the slack if you have any questions. Let’s go.
UFC 225 goes down Saturday night from Chicago, with the Fight Pass early prelims aired on Fight Pass, immediately followed by the prelims on FS1, rolling into the main card on PPV.
The card is set with 13 fights, (well 12 and Phil Brooks (CM Punk) (0-1) vs Mike Jackson (0-1)), and its headlined by middleweight champ Robert Whittaker (19-4, 10-2 UFC) vs challenger Yoel Romero (13-2, 9-1 UFC). The co-main will crown a new interim welterweight champ as Rafael dos Anjos (28-9, 17-1 UFC) vs Colby Covington (13-1, 8-1 UFC).
Here’s the schedule:
Let’s break it down. Some quick reminders:
As mentioned in the tip sheet above, here’s my MMA DFS Heat Chart for UFC 225. As you can see, the chart is ranked based on fight finish odds. Fight finishes are where the points are at in MMA DFS. Take a quick glance at the stack, and we will break down the individual match-ups below.
Two key offensive metrics are strikes and takedowns. They get off on their opponents, watch your points rack up quick. Here’s my Offensive Output Meter for UFC 225. With this chart, you can compare historical fighter averages in these two, key metrics as I rank all fighters participating Saturday night.
FIGHTS ODDS HAVE MOST LIKELY ENDING INSIDE THE DISTANCE:
QUICK PREDICTIONS ON THE MATCH UPS:
|
MATCH |
FIGHTER |
ODDS |
ODDS TO FINISH |
PRICE |
W FINISH % |
L FINISH % |
|
1 |
WHITTAKER |
-250 |
135 |
$9,100 |
73% |
50% |
|
1 |
ROMERO |
210 |
305 |
$7,100 |
85% |
50% |
OPENING ODDS: Whittaker -150 Romero +110
POST WEIGH IN ODDS: Whittaker -250 Romero +230
MY TAKE: What a mess. This is exactly why you always wait for the weigh ins. After two tries, Romero failed to make weight and came in at 185.2, making this a non-title fight, yet Dana White stated Friday it would remain a five-round match. In their first fight, Whittaker landed double the significant strikes that Romero was able to. Romero scored points with four takedowns, as Whittaker noticeably hyperextended his knee, which ultimately led to surgery. If that wasn’t enough, he also suffered a nasty staph infection which spread to his stomach, followed up with chickenpox. Anyhow, he is back. I look to see Whittaker the more active fighter, looking to push the pace and land as he did in the first fight. With a price tag of $9100, he’ll most likely need a finish to hit value. In his last fight, he scored 70 FPTS even with five rounds to work. Romero on the other hand, has the value in this match priced at $7100. In 8 of 10 fights scored on DraftKings, he’s surpassed 71 points of more. Romero (if smart) will look to target the knee, which could lead to Whittaker dropping his hands, opening himself up for one of Romero’s devastating haymakers. The dude has power and gave us one of the best uppercut gifs ever in his last fight against Rockhold. https://imgur.com/r/mma/cr27L77
Although Whittaker should take this fight, especially after the weigh in debacle, I will be rostering Romero in a few lineups based on his price tag and finish success rate, even in these big match ups.
|
MATCH |
FIGHTER |
ODDS |
ODDS TO FINISH |
PRICE |
W FINISH % |
L FINISH % |
|
2 |
DOS ANJOS |
-115 |
245 |
$8,200 |
50% |
33% |
|
2 |
COVINGTON |
-105 |
421 |
$8,000 |
53% |
100% |
OPENING ODDS: Dos Anjos -190 Covington +150
POST WEIGH IN ODDS: Dos Anjos +130 Covington -140
MY TAKE: Talk enough shit, and the public begins to believe you. Look, Colby is a great fighter, but he has absolutely talked his way into this interim title shot. Colby got pieced up on the feet against Maia, which was hilarious, but eventually took the W with the 40+ year old eventually showing his age. Covington has a shot to win, and takedowns will be not only his key to getting the nod, but also a way to rack up some points across five rounds of work. Dos Anjos doesn’t have great takedown defense (66%) and it could come into play. I do believe though the odds makers had this right with the opening line. Dos Anjos has looked amazing in his last couple matches, most recently working over Robbie Lawler. Maia came out strong against Covington but faded after just one round. Dos Anjos has the tank to keep it going and I’m siding with the Brazilian in more lineups than Covington and his WWF stuff.
|
MATCH |
FIGHTER |
ODDS |
ODDS TO FINISH |
PRICE |
W FINISH % |
L FINISH % |
|
3 |
ANDERSON |
185 |
370 |
$7,300 |
75% |
50% |
|
3 |
HOLM |
-225 |
540 |
$8,900 |
73% |
25% |
OPENING ODDS: Holm -175 Anderson +135
POST WEIGH IN ODDS: Holm -150 Anderson +140
MY TAKE: I love this match up. Should be interesting to see what the debuting Anderson can do here against Holm. So much talk about her fighting Cyborg over the last several months, and I really like the fact that we get to see what she can do against the #1 first. Holm has only looked impressive really in one UFC fight, right? It was against (I’m going to say it) WWE star Ronda Rousey, landing that kick to the head putting her to sleep. Holm is 4-4 in the UFC and has actually done the chicken dance a few times. Anderson brings an 8-2 record to the table, finishing her last four opponents, and I believe breaking all four opponent’s orbital bones. She has amazing reach and hits harder than most in this weight division. In fights I’ve watched of Anderson’s, she seems to let her opponents hit her with ease with counter shots. Hopefully she’s patched that up and improved her defense, especially against someone like Holm. I’m not seeing Holm looking to take this to the ground, and if it ends up there, Anderson should be able to take it where she wants. With that said, Holm should need a finish to hit value at $8900. Another value shot with Anderson here. She’s looked great all week, composed and in amazing shape. Noticeable size difference too.
|
MATCH |
FIGHTER |
ODDS |
ODDS TO FINISH |
PRICE |
W FINISH % |
L FINISH % |
|
4 |
TUIVASA |
-275 |
-185 |
$9,300 |
100% |
0% |
|
4 |
ARLOVSKI |
235 |
540 |
$6,900 |
74% |
74% |
OPENING ODDS: Arlovski +185 Tuivasa -265
POST WEIGH IN ODDS: Arlovski +185 Tuivasa -200
MY TAKE: Tuivasa is probably my favorite roster and bet Saturday night (by TKO/KO -146). Now we haven’t seen the Aussie go deep into a fight, and if so, he’ll have some issues, but the guy comes swinging and Arlovski’s chin is won’t be able to take too many of those hellbows. Tui’s just about solid red across the board on my heat chart, and when we’ve see that in the past, its money. Let’s go.
|
MATCH |
FIGHTER |
ODDS |
ODDS TO FINISH |
PRICE |
W FINISH % |
L FINISH % |
|
5 |
JACKSON |
-230 |
105 |
$8,600 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
PUNK |
190 |
280 |
$7,600 |
0% |
100% |
OPENING ODDS: Punk +200 Jackson -280
POST WEIGH IN ODDS: Punk +185 Jackson -200
MY TAKE: Why? I’m actually disappointed in Dana and the UFC for putting this on the PPV. Two guys who are 0-1, who have landed a combined 3 strikes in the UFC. There is basically no footage of Punk and he had too much anxiety to show up to the open work outs this week. On the other hand, we have Jackson, who’s friends with Mick Maynard, and is better known for taking MMA pictures and doing media. WTF is going on here? With this fight taking place in Chicago, Punk’s hood, how can this not be some sort of set up? Tread lightly, and if Punk wins, take a shot. If he loses, take a shot too. Either way after this fight, we will all need to drink.
|
MATCH |
FIGHTER |
ODDS |
ODDS TO FINISH |
PRICE |
W FINISH % |
L FINISH % |
|
6 |
BLAYDES |
-180 |
-105 |
$8,500 |
78% |
100% |
|
6 |
OVEREEM |
158 |
315 |
$7,700 |
89% |
81% |
OPENING ODDS: Overeem -140 Blaydes +100
POST WEIGH IN ODDS: Overeem +167 Blaydes -178
MY TAKE: If we’ve seen anything, Blaydes does not like to stand if he doesn’t have to. Blaydes will look to get to the mat, but Reem’s TD defense will be tough to get through (76% def). Reem will be selective and look to throw that one bomb at some point along the way. If Blaydes can land though, or at least drop Reem, the fight is his. I’d say the line move is an exaggeration of chatter about the chin comparison, especially after what happened to Reem against Ngannou. Blaydes has never technically been knocked out, while Reem has been in his last nine losses, dating back to 2006. Either someone lands a highlight reel shot hooking up a 50K bonus, or we watch to heavyweights hesitate to take the risk. I’m leaning Blaydes by either finish or simply by more output.
|
MATCH |
FIGHTER |
ODDS |
ODDS TO FINISH |
PRICE |
W FINISH % |
L FINISH % |
|
7 |
GADELHA |
-550 |
245 |
$9,400 |
60% |
0% |
|
7 |
ESPARZA |
425 |
1500 |
$6,800 |
53% |
50% |
OPENING ODDS: Gadelha -400 Esparza +280
POST WEIGH IN ODDS: Gadelha -405 Esparza +360
MY TAKE: Gadelha should absolutely maul Esparza. The question though is, can she get an early finish to support paying up $9400? Esparza’s only been finished twice and only once by submission, which Gadelha will look to lock up. That is, unless she just wants to punish her for three rounds. These two go back and aren’t fans of each other. Gadelha via some sort of statement.
|
MATCH |
FIGHTER |
ODDS |
ODDS TO FINISH |
PRICE |
W FINISH % |
L FINISH % |
|
8 |
BEKTIC |
-220 |
165 |
$8,800 |
75% |
100% |
|
8 |
LAMAS |
180 |
420 |
$7,400 |
56% |
67% |
OPENING ODDS: Lamas +135 Bektic -175
POST WEIGH IN ODDS: Lamas +220 Bektic -240
MY TAKE: I ran across a 225 preview on YouTube and the guy didn’t know who Bektic was. It shows just how far the MMA media has come these days. Lamas got caught against Emmett last go, and will look to rebound against a very tough test in Bektic. Bektic, who is coming in with a 12-1 record, has the advantage everywhere (metric wise) and should be the quicker, faster of the two. I’m siding with Bektic and even with his price, I will roster him. Not 100%, but in a few. He averages 96.5 FPTS and if he can keep that up, he’ll exceed the 10x value benchmark.
|
MATCH |
FIGHTER |
ODDS |
ODDS TO FINISH |
PRICE |
W FINISH % |
L FINISH % |
|
9 |
COULTER |
-175 |
-122 |
$8,700 |
100% |
100% |
|
9 |
DE LA ROCHA |
155 |
219 |
$7,500 |
100% |
100% |
OPENING ODDS: Coulter -190 De La Rocha +150
POST WEIGH IN ODDS: Coulter -125 De La Rocha +115
MY TAKE: Coulter has said he’s bringing the usual kill or be killed attitude to UFC 225, looking to land a 50K bonus on the night. I like it! He’s 8-3 with 8 KO wins against absolutely……….nobody. That’s the problem. De La Rocha on the other hand hasn’t really done anything either. Both guys are 0-2 since joining the UFC and both have been KO’d in both of their fights. Odds makers opened Coulter up at almost a 2:1 favorite. This fight has the highest odds to finish inside of 2 rounds. I’ve seen Coulter take a few more shots than De La Rocha, but man, one of them is going to sleep. More Coulter for me. If Omielanczuk can TKO De La Rocha in 48 seconds, Coulter can do something at some point too.
|
MATCH |
FIGHTER |
ODDS |
ODDS TO FINISH |
PRICE |
W FINISH % |
L FINISH % |
|
10 |
SMITH |
-325 |
120 |
$9,200 |
89% |
92% |
|
10 |
EVANS |
265 |
735 |
$7,000 |
48% |
29% |
OPENING ODDS: Evans +190 Smith -270
POST WEIGH IN ODDS: Evans +235 Smith -235
MY TAKE: I’m fading this one for the most part in DraftKings. Rashad is all but done, and has dropped his last four. It’s like he can’t pull the trigger anymore for some reason. At Smith’s price, and the fact that Rashad has only been TKO’d twice, it’s hard to justify the price. It’s always these type of fights though, that have something crazy that happens. Smith at $9200, yet he’s only scored that once. No thanks.
|
MATCH |
FIGHTER |
ODDS |
ODDS TO FINISH |
PRICE |
W FINISH % |
L FINISH % |
|
11 |
BENAVIDEZ |
-240 |
300 |
$9,000 |
60% |
25% |
|
11 |
PETTIS |
200 |
625 |
$7,200 |
38% |
66% |
OPENING ODDS: Benavidez -260 Pettis +180
POST WEIGH IN ODDS: Benavidez -200 Pettis +185
MY TAKE: Benavidez is pissed, as he’s been stuffed down on the Fight Pass prelims and is taking it personal. I’m hoping we see that come out in his fight and he makes some sort of statement against Pettis. I like Benavidez via decision and the prop is about even money.
|
MATCH |
FIGHTER |
ODDS |
ODDS TO FINISH |
PRICE |
W FINISH % |
L FINISH % |
|
12 |
OLIVEIRA |
-155 |
110 |
$8,400 |
91% |
88% |
|
12 |
GUIDA |
135 |
335 |
$7,800 |
59% |
59% |
OPENING ODDS: Guida +145 Oliveira -185
POST WEIGH IN ODDS: Guida +120 Oliveira -130
MY TAKE: Oliveira coming in on short notice, but he’s looked all but that this fight week. Guida will be fighting in front of his home town (for the most part) and has just re-upped his contract with the UFC. This is a tough match up for him. Oliveira has been known to quit and if you look, he hasn’t gone to a decision in his last 7 fights, dating back to 2014. The guy either folds, or makes you look stupid and chokes you out. I like Guida and he is known for taking you down, but he’ll want to avoid that here, which won’t help his overall cause. I’m siding with Oliveira and could see him close the distance and look to finish and quiet the crowd.
|
MATCH |
FIGHTER |
ODDS |
ODDS TO FINISH |
PRICE |
W FINISH % |
L FINISH % |
|
13 |
SANTIAGO |
115 |
315 |
$7,900 |
80% |
82% |
|
13 |
IGE |
-135 |
350 |
$8,300 |
75% |
0% |
OPENING ODDS: Santiago +180 Ige -260
POST WEIGH IN ODDS: Santiago +105 Ige -115
MY TAKE: Man, did this line tighten up?! I see a slim chance here where Ige could possibly get Santiago to tap. He doesn’t have the best TD defense, and if Santiago can keep it standing, his power and output should lead to a decision win. At some point though, I see this one getting to the mat, and Ige will look to lock in a sub.
PLAYS:
RDA +130
Anderson +145
Tuivasa via TKO/KO -165
Benavidez via DEC -110
Alright crew.. hit me up on the Scout slack chat, or on Twitter at @Y2CASEY if you have any questions. #ScoutArmy
