The Daily Armory: Week 4 NFL DFS

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  • #66999

    <p style=”text-align: justify;”>DA2018 NFL DFS Week 4</p>
    <p style=”text-align: justify;”>
    What’s up Scout Army?!?!</p>
    <p style=”text-align: justify;”>
    A very tricky week as there are a couple of rock-solid games to select players and then there is everything else. I have selected certain players that should help with everyone’s lineup builds as well as put some thought into certain players for stack purposes. That’s why you will see groups of WRs from certain teams with a small breakdown for each guy. I did look outside the box on some potential QBs and their weapons for GPPs but I must admit I’m not 100% sold on them right now. Everything for this weekend that I have been hearing and reading has been all over the place so other than CASH games it’s hard to get a good reading on where everyone will go. In the end I may end up using my CASH core and differentiating off that, which will primarily be from the CIN/ATL game and possibly the NO/NYG game. Take a look and tell me what you think and as always you can find out how to reach me at the bottom of the article.</p>
    <p style=”text-align: justify;”>
    The weekly reminder of how pricing is presented:</p>
    <p style=”text-align: justify;”>
    (FD$/FD#) = The FanDuel player price and how they rank at their individual position in terms of price.
    (DK$/DK#) = The DraftKings player price and how they rank at their individual position in terms of price.
    T = Position Ranking Tie
    *FanDuel will always be the first set of numbers and DraftKings will be the second set of numbers*</p>
    <p style=”text-align: justify;”>
    Each player will have either a “CASH” or “GPP” designation. Cash players can be used in GPPs but remember that you need to be different somewhere in your lineup if you want to win a GPP.
    Also, you will notice that my write up is only for the Sunday Main Slate which covers every Sunday game except the SNF game unless specified as a BONUS article for example the early London games in a few weeks or the ever-popular Thanksgiving Day slate. I do use the rank of all position players from Thursday through Monday. So, when you see Tom Brady ranked #2 at his position but he’s the most expensive option that’s why.</p>
    Drew Brees ($8,700/2) ($6,600/4) GPP
    He’s on the road, but the only reason he Is in GPP instead of CASH is because he’s expensive. He should be just fine against the Giants.
    Tom Brady ($8,600/3) ($6,700/3) GPP
    TOM BRADY IS NOT DEAD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Okay, he might be dead. But he will be low owned and should bounce back in a match up with the Dolphins at home.
    Matt Ryan ($8,100/5) ($6,100/8) CASH
    One of the two best options for CASH this week. He will be popular, but in another good match up this week it’s fine to eat the chalk.
    Phillip Rivers ($7,800/7) ($6,500/5) CASH/GPP
    San Francisco is actually pretty good against the ground game but lacks against the pass. Of course, Rivers is an excellent passer and is generally safe every week but there is risk that if the Chargers get too far ahead they will try to run out the clock more on the ground.
    Andy Dalton ($7,400/T12) ($5,400/T18) CASH
    Pretty much the top CASH game QB play as he is cheaper than Matt Ryan but has just as much upside this week facing a beleaguered Falcon’s pass defense.
    Ryan Fitzpatrick ($7,400/T12) ($6200/7) GPP
    I struggled with the decision to include Fitz Magic this week. But with the Bears hurting in the secondary he has a shot to have a really good day. He will need his offensive line to hold off the Bears pass rush, but if he gets time this is a talented group of targets where he could surprisingly shine and with low ownership. Of course, if Winston starts run away from everyone!!!!!
    Eli Manning ($7,100/17) ($5,600/T13) GPP
    Cash Game Eli to the rescue……….NO……. GPP only against the Saints.
    Baker Mayfield ($6,900/T20) ($5,300/T20) GPP
    Will be popular in CASH but I cannot pull the trigger on him in his first start. Super talented for the price and in a good match up with the Raiders.
    Ryan Tannehill ($6,800/T22) ($5,500/T16) CASH
    Playing in a game where Vegas thinks the Dolphins will be playing from behind and Tannehill has been consistently good to start the season.
    Mitch Trubisky ($6,800/T22) ($5,200/T23) GPP
    Great match up, BUT can he pull his head out of his ass and get that high upside out of not only himself but his targets? The Bears offensive line has the advantage in this matchup and should give Captain Dipshit as much time as he needs.
    CJ Beathard ($6,200/T31) ($4,600/31) CASH/GPP
    He is dirt cheap and, in a match up where he needs to keep up with Phillip Rivers he is in play because he only needs around 15 pts to hit value and he allows you to fit higher end talent in your lineup.

    Alvin Kamara ($9,100/T1) ($9,600/1) CASH
    Always in play as his involvement with the Saints offense is unmatched due to his upside and in this presumed high scoring match up he is due to get another TD while racking up catches and yards.
    Ezekiel Elliott ($8,200/5) ($7,700/6) CASH/GPP
    Good matchup with the Lions in a game that won’t have a fast pace. This game is going to be won or lost on the ground and for the Cowboys it starts with a heavy dose of Zeke. He is a better play on FD as he doesn’t get a heavy involvement in the passing game. So, he’s good for CASH on FD and more GPP on DK as he still has the opportunity to break long TD runs against the Lions defense.
    Saquan Barkley ($8,000/6) ($8,100/5) CASH/GPP
    I don’t know why more people aren’t on Barkley? Even with a poor offensive line in front of him he should have a good day as the main RB running the football and will be heavily involved in the passing game. If the Giants hope to beat the Saints, then Barkley must be the guy leading the charge.
    Tevin Coleman ($7,200/T11) ($5,900/T15) CASH/GPP
    Freeman is still out, and Ito Smith isn’t a threat in a good match up where he will be heavily involved.
    Jordan Howard ($7,200/T11) ($6,800/9) CASH
    Howard should eat against a weakened Bucs defensive front and still at a good price.
    Carlos Hyde ($6,800/T14) ($5,500/T20) GPP
    Good matchup and will continue to get the bulk of the carries, but still hard to use in CASH with safer options around his price point.
    Gio Bernard ($6,400/T21) ($6,300/13) CASH
    Should be a popular play as again the Falcons still suck against the RB in the passing game.
    Matt Breida ($6,400/T21) ($5,800/T17) GPP
    He’s questionable so he won’t make the cash list especially with Morris still around. It’s hard to argue that they will lean on the RBs to help Beathard out in a match up against a banged-up Chargers defense. If he sits you can prop Kittle up as an option at TE.
    Kenyon Drake ($6,300/26) ($5,200/24) GPP
    Goddamit’, give Drake the fucking ball already!!!!!
    Austin Ekelor ($6,200/27) ($4,200/T44) GPP
    Value play in a game where the Chargers will be passing the ball more even when playing from ahead. Should also get carries if the 49ers fail to keep up.
    James White ($6,100/T28) ($5,400/22) CASH/GPP
    Always a better play on DK as he will be involved in the passing game where I believe he outscores Michel overall.
    Kerryon Johnson ($5,700/T38) ($4,400/T35) GPP
    No Sean Lee? Fire him up as a value option but I still don’t trust him in cash.
    Jalen Richard ($4,600/T72) ($3,400/T76) GPP
    If you need help fitting guys in think about using Richard for value in your flex as I expect the Raiders to be playing from behind and that props him up as an option in the passing game.

    Michael Thomas ($9,000/1) ($9,100/1 CASH
    It’s Michael Fucking Thomas!
    Odell Beckham Jr. ($8,600/T3) ($8,700/3) CASH
    Sterling Shepard ($6,200/T41) ($4,900/T44) CASH
    Both are in play. While I’d prefer Beckham more for cash you will need the savings to grab two high end RBs so feel free to get exposure by using Shepard.
    Julio Jones ($8,600/T3) ($8,200/6) CASH/GPP
    Mohammed Sanu ($5,300/T63) ($3,600/T72) CASH
    Calvin Ridley ($6,300/T37) ($4,900/T44) CASH
    I don’t usually use Julio in CASH but must admit he’s in a good spot and I expect him to get a TD this week. Ridley is going to be popular after last week’s 3 TD day, so he plays, but if paying down and you want exposure think about using Sanu who is cheaper and takes you off the chalkier player who will probably see extra attention.
    AJ Green ($8,500/6) ($7,500/10) GPP
    Tyler Boyd ($5,800/T49) ($4,600/T49) CASH/GPP
    Green nursing an injury but should be good to go in an expected shoot out. Boyd relies on Green to be successful usually, so I would only use him in CASH if Green plays which he should.
    Keenan Allen ($8,100/8) ($8,300/5) GPP
    Mike Williams ($6,300/T37) ($4,500/T52) CASH/GPP
    Allen is questionable but should play. If Allen plays I like Williams for CASH. If he’s not there to take attention away I would use him in GPP only.
    Mike Evans ($7,900/11) ($7,900/8) GPP
    Desean Jackson ($6,500/T25) ($5,700/T25) GPP
    The two reasons that I had to include Fitzpatrick this week. The Bears are hurting in the secondary so if the offensive line can stave off a fearsome pass rush these two could both have great days. I’d almost go all in if using the Bucs offensive players for this GPP play.
    Jarvis Landry ($7,000/T18) ($7,400/11) CASH
    Antonio Callaway ($4,500/T99) ($4,300/T56) GPP
    Landry is always in play for cash and seems to be a lock in target machine for Mayfield. Callaway always has the speed to take one long for a TD.
    Allen Robinson ($6,500/T25) ($5,900/24) CASH
    Taylor Gabriel ($5,000/T74) ($3,900/T62) GPP
    A Rob is by far Trubisky’s favorite target and is in a great matchup of course with the Bucs beleaguered secondary. Gabriel can use his speed this week and take one to the house as well with Anthony Miller nursing a shoulder injury.
    Kenny Stills ($6,400/T32) ($5,800/T25) CASH
    Danny Amendola ($4,600/T88) ($4,100/59) CASH/GPP
    Kenny Stills is by far and away Tannehill’s favorite target and Amendola has the revenge narrative with the best matchup.
    Nelson Agholor ($6,300/T37) ($5,700/T28) CASH
    IF Alshon Jeffrey does play that would put Agholor back in the slot where he thrives.
    Randall Cobb ($6,100/T45) ($5,100/T40) CASH/GPP
    Geronimo Allison ($5,900/T47) ($4,700/T47) CASH/GPP
    Cobb just went questionable, but there’s no denying that he has the best matchup. If he sits then I can sign off on a shift to Allison although it would put me on Jimmy Graham more.
    Kelvin Benjamin ($5,200/T66) ($3,600/T72) CASH
    Josh Allen must throw it to someone and Benjamin is the most talented target against a weak Packers secondary.
    Pierre Garcon ($5,100/T69) ($4,600/T49) GPP
    Marques Goodwin ($5,500/T52) ($4,800/46) GPP
    The WR/CB match ups are poor, but the Niners will have to throw if they hope to keep up with Phillip Rivers and the Chargers offense. As always, Goodwin has more upside.

    Rob Gronkowski ($8,100/1) ($7,000/1) CASH
    It’s Gronk and he has a history of smashing the Dolphins.
    Jimmy Graham ($6,000/T4) ($4,500/4) GPP
    Possibly taking a shot here as the Bills have had issues against the TE and are weaker in coverage across the middle. If Randall Cobb sits I like the play even more.
    Trey Burton ($5,600/T7) ($3,900/9) CASH
    Tampa has issues with the TE position and after what Vance McDonald did on Monday night are you going to pass on this upside?
    Eric Ebron ($5,500/T9) $3,600/12) GPP
    No Jack Doyle again and Luck can’t throw long.
    Austin Hooper ($5,000/18) ($2,900/T20) GPP
    He’s a shitbag, but I can’t deny that he is finally in a match up that I can’t say no to. I like him a lot! (vomits)
    Mike Gesicki ($4,400/T39) ($2,600/T30) CASH/GPP
    Good match up and with no AJ Derby the TE targets are all his for a cheap price.
    Ryan Griffin ($4,500/T26) ($2,600/T30) CASH
    Good match up and dirt cheap.

    JAX ($5,200/1) ($4,100/1) CASH
    J…. E…. T.…S, I shouldn’t have to explain this one.
    PHI ($4,600/3) ($3,300/4) CASH
    It’s the Titans and if Mariota can’t grip a ball tightly that can lead to turnovers.
    SEA ($4,400/T4) ($3,200/5) CASH
    No……. I don’t give a fuck that David Johnson was mentioned as a possible play in the podcast. Mention any of the Cardinals as a good play to me and I’ll beat you with a Johnson that still has the ability to score 3x on the field of play!!
    CLE ($3,500/T21) ($2,900/T6) CASH
    If Mayfield is going to make the offense competent, then that gives the defense enough rest to stay fresh and shut down this Raiders offense.
    DET ($3,500/T21) ($2,500/T12) GPP
    I do like Zeke, but it’s not crazy to see that this game is going to be slow paced and fucked in the passing game for the Cowboys.

    Any questions or comments? Leave them here or hit me up in the FullTime Fantasy Slack Chat. You can also hit me up on Twitter @roydawg_13 #ScoutArmy #DailyArmory

  • #67018

    Dennis….as always…great content and insight (though you should get it out before the 800 lb Albino Ape).  I would add that Rhett Ellison (GIA) could be a GPP flyer for TE.  So which Johnson (and its not the little shrived one with it getting colder by the day) is still fantasy viable? Calvin retired early, Andre and Chris wasted away into retirement, and David has the new Zona Coaching Staff….has to be DUKE!

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