- August 12, 2018 at 7:44 pm #51914
- August 12, 2018 at 7:45 pm #51915
- August 12, 2018 at 9:53 pm #51932
Hell Yeah!! Come to Papa!! HUNT @ 2.3….whooooaaaaa after FOURNETTE 😜🤑 Thats how you start a draft in 2018. Stock up.
- August 13, 2018 at 8:54 am #51954
I get the excitement of Mixon, but what are his downside, floor, and ceiling? The Bengals’ RBs last year gained 1,267 yards on 339 carries with six rushing TDs while gaining only 3.74 yards per rush. Their backs caught 79 of 100 targets for 728 yards and two TDs. Giovani Bernard is only 27, so he’s not going away. Bernard has 230 catches in his NFL career over five seasons while gaining 9.0 yards per catch. He outgained Mixon last year in yards per rush (4.4 to 3.5). When healthy and playing 16 games, Giovani delivered over 800 combined yards in four seasons with three of those year resulting in 1,000+ combined yards.
I ask you, if he had 275 touches for 1,300 combined yards with eight TDs and 40 catches, would you be satisfied with his season? This stat line would project to a back-end RB1 in most seasons.
The Bengals’ offense line didn’t play well last year, but it should be improved slightly in 2018. Mixon has stud upside, but he doesn’t have a clean ride. Lamar Miller averaged 267 touches for 1,279 yards with seven TDs and 38 catches over the last four seasons, which is the bar I believe Mixon has to beat. If not, he’s being over drafted. I know Miller will play behind a worse offensive line, but the health of D’onta Foreman does give him a cleaner opportunity out of the gate.
Any thoughts on this comparison?
- August 13, 2018 at 9:30 am #51961
Wow, your ability to compare without fear is astounding. (that’s a compliment) There’s a lot of similarities between the two but Lamar doesn’t seem like he has what he had coming into the NFL, but fantasy owners are being too hard on him for certain. As for Mixon, I’m more worried about the Bengals offense than anything. Having spoken to several high stakes drafters these past few weeks, there is a lot of love for Mixon.
- August 12, 2018 at 7:45 pm #51916
- August 12, 2018 at 7:46 pm #51917
- August 12, 2018 at 7:46 pm #51918
5/ After several years of seeing ZERO RB
@PlayFFWC drafting, so far through three rounds, we have ZERO teams with 3 WRs, and only 1 went WR/WR. It’s all about the RBs in 2018. TWO teams have started 3RBs out of the gate.
- August 12, 2018 at 10:10 pm #51934
Talk about going out on the ledge. Mixon at 2.1 & McCoy at 3.12. Both not expected. Mixon ‘could’ beast for sure but thats really high & McCoy could be the bust of all early drafters if the league drops the hammer prior to WK 1 for off the field behavior. Even if he does plays that Buffalo Offense could struggle all year. We shall see how this unfolds but this was interesting to say the least (not taking 3 RBs to start but who/when was selected was).
- August 12, 2018 at 7:47 pm #51919
- August 12, 2018 at 7:55 pm #51920
7/ Redskins RB Chris Thompson was just selected RB29 to a team needing their RB3. Somewhat surprised that he would go before @Lions rookie RB Kerryon Johnson (2 picks later). Thompson has to overcome surgery from a broken fibula. It would not surprise me in the least if Perine outscores Thompson for the season.
- August 13, 2018 at 8:31 am #51953
For those drafting Thompson inside of round 10, they are getting a bad read on the direction of his injury recovery. He may surprise, but I don’t feel as though he can be trusted as a playable piece to a Fantasy team in 2018. I’m avoiding until I hear a positive piece of information in his direction. For now, Chris is closer to an RB5 than an RB3 in PPR leagues.
- August 12, 2018 at 7:58 pm #51921
8/ How far is too far to let the QBs slide? I mean we’ve all been there. I used to have a rule. If Peyton Manning falls to the 5th round, you take him. Granted times have changed and the position is full of parity, but Aaron Rodgers lasted all the way until 6.3. Looking at the picks right before him, I can’t fault them for passing. This feels about right for experienced drafters to take a shot.
- August 12, 2018 at 10:02 pm #51933
You have to break the “Golden Rule” of NOT drafting a QB before RD 10 when THIS guy falls into the 6th. Just have to. Analytics & point expectations of the Top 3-4 QBs are still on the board in RDs 6-9 you have to pull the trigger. They will outscore EVERY player drafted around them in RDs 6-9 by 100+ mark it down. #NumbersNeverLie
- August 12, 2018 at 8:02 pm #51922
9/ It seems like the hype for Rex Burkhead has really picked up steam the last few weeks. With an ADP of 62, he snuck in right before it at 59. What’s really incredible is his MinMax (or highest and lowest adp) score of 56|95. That’s quite a spread in the most recent 10 drafts performed. He is flying up draft boards people.
- August 12, 2018 at 9:09 pm #51929
Burkhead will go down as a bust. He’s not that good to be a lead back for the whole year. Hell, he couldn’t beat out Jeremy Hill in Cinci, which may play out the same in New England.
- August 13, 2018 at 9:31 am #51962
If you listen to beat writers, all this past month they’ve voiced their concerns about Hill even making the team, but he’s still a young back and when healthy, might be poised to surprise. Totally under the radar and apparently loathed by twitter bloggers.
- August 12, 2018 at 8:49 pm #51927
10/ Are we being too tough on ol Jordy? I mean, injuries make everybody look bad. He was just taken WR41. I think Carr is going to love him. Shawn Childs may have said it best in his player outlook: “Easy player to write off due to age (33) and poor results in 2017. Jordy has great hands, but he can’t be a difference maker without better separation. My conservative bar is 60 catches for 750 yards and five TDs with just as much failure as upside. Only buy at a discount. Tonight’s draft: 7th Round WR 41.
- August 12, 2018 at 8:50 pm #51928
I’ll be back for more after a quick break and I’ll take a look at the second leg of this draft.
- August 13, 2018 at 8:28 am #51952
Jordy has been getting positive news while Martavis Bryant struggled to learn the playbook. Jordy to trending to hit the over in my early projections. Will Nelson out Fantasy point Randall Cobb?
- August 15, 2018 at 2:41 pm #52418
You guys like playing both sides. Funny how you think the Thompson pick is early at RB29 when your sites updated 8/13 rankings, a day after this draft, touts Thompson as the RB28 and Kerron Johnson at RB35.
And seriously are you guys actually doubling down on Samje Perine (pronounced P-I-SUCK) after lasts years awful breakout choice ?
- August 16, 2018 at 6:27 am #52574
Well, you could say the same for Luis Severino (breakout pitcher) in baseball in 2016. He turned in a brutal year (3-8 with a 5.83 ERA and 1.45 WHIP over 71 innings). I was wrong about him that year, but I was correct about his talent.
Here’s my 2017 profile:
Severino was a complete train wreck as a starting pitcher in 2016 in the majors. Over 11 starts, he went 0-8 with an 8.50 ERA and 1.783 WHIP. His arm held value when shipped back to the minors (3.49 ERA with 78 Ks in 77.1 innings). New York moved him to the bullpen late in the year. Over 11 appearances, Luis went 3-0 with a 0.39 ERA and 25 Ks in 23.1 innings. Batters only hit .105 against him in the pen (.337 in a starting role). His final stats in walk rate (3.2) and K rate (8.4) fell in line with success in the majors in 2015 when he went 5-3 with a 2.89 ERA and 56 Ks in 62.1 innings. HRs continues to be an issue in the majors (20 allowed in 133.1 innings). Over five seasons in the minors, Severino went 31-12 with a 2.51 ERA with 403 Ks in 401 innings while doing a much better job throwing strikes (2.2 walk rate). His AFB (96.9) had more zip in 2016, but batters hit .302 against it with a huge SLG rate (.528). Luis also threw a slider (.227 BAA) and changeup (.242 BAA). I expect him to come back in a big way in 2017. He needs better command of his fastball in the strike zone to make that impact step forward. Complete gift in the early draft season (ADP of 409 in 15 team leagues). Potential SP3 with a chance at a sub 3.50 ERA and 175 Ks.
In 2017, he went 14-6 with a 2.98 ERA and 230 Ks over 193.1 innings, which indeed did make him a complete steal in Fantasy drafts. His arm proved to off upside again in 2018.
As for Thompson, he has to be ranked where his expected value and opportunity is in 2018. This can be said about many players who have some injury news. Until there is a cleaner update on his health, a Fantasy site has to give him a fair evaluation. That doesn’t mean he’s must get on draft day. Sometimes a Fantasy owner has to read between the line. My feeling (not supported by all here) is that is there is more going on with Thompson’s recovery than most Fantasy owners believe. I’m avoiding him. I’d rather be cautious than invest a valuable pick on a player who doesn’t seem healthy.
Scott mentioned Perine as the possible best out at RB for the Redskins on early downs. At no point in 2018 has someone stated he was a must get. You may believe Perine isn’t a great player and that could be true, but he did rush for over 100 yards in back-to-back games in 2017, which shows he does have talent. The Redskins’ offensive line has injuries last year and Perine finished with boring results in his last four games with starting snaps. Even with some ugliness to results, Samaje did score 9.9, 9.2, 8.6, and 10.4 Fantasy points in those games in PPR leagues with no TDs. Over his last six full games, he averaged 12.8 Fantasy points per game. Based on his price point, the injury to Guice, and the Redskins’ current roster at RB, he’s worth a flier. As a backend flier after round ten, a Fantasy owner would be making a mistake to ignore his possible opportunity and upside.
Even if Thompson plays out of the gate, he’s not going to be the lead back on early downs. Last year he had over nine carries in just one game in his nine full games of action.
While we were bad on Perine as breakout last year, there is no site in the industry that had a better outlook or profile on Deshaun Watson and DeAndre Hopkins. Here they are to refresh your memory:
Deshaun Watson (QB) – From a winning perspective and overall dynamics added to the offense, the Houston Texans must be ecstatic with the selection of QB Deshaun Watson. He instantly upgrades the WR DeAndre Hopkins while adding another dimension to the offense with his ability to run. I don’t see any way Tom Savage beats him out for the starting job over the long haul. Watson comes from a winning program and he’s played in high-pressure games. Over the last two seasons at Clemson, Deshaun passed for 8,702 yards with an exceptional completion rate (67.4). He finished with 86 TDs and 30 Ints over that span. When you add his value in the run game (372/1734/21) in 2015 and 2016, a Fantasy owner can see the excitement in this skill set. It won’t take much to see this summer that Watson is the quarterback that gives the Texans the best chances to win in 2017. He has a great wide receiver with a deep threat in Will Fuller. Deshaun’s legs will help those two players shine in the deep passing game. Houston will throw the ball 550 to 600 times so a full season of games for Deshaun should lead to over 4,000 yards passing with 30+ combined TDs and over 600 yards rushing. Complete steal as a QB2 while I fully expect him to be a top 10 Fantasy QB in 2017.
DeAndre Hopkins (WR) – It’s downright embarrassing to see the final stats (78/954/4 on 151 targets) of Hopkins in 2016. Teams doubled and triple team him all year leading to a decline in his catch rate (51.7 – 57.8 in 2015) with fade in his opportunity (21.4 percent) and his big-play ability (10 catches over 20 yards – 20 in 2014 and 19 in 2015). DeAndre only had two games with over 100 yards receiving (Week 2 – 7/113/1 and Week 17 – 7/123). He had double-digit targets in seven games compared to 13 games in 2015. One of the great lines from Good Will Hunting sums it up best here, “It’s not your fault… It’s not your fault”. Hopkins is an explosive talent and Watson will make him shine again. His high-volume opportunity and big-play ability will return in 2017. He’s yet to miss a game in his 64-game career. Just based on durability, I would rather own his than Julio Jones this year. Excellent value with another 100+ catch season expected with 1400+ yards and double-digit TDs. This adds up to a 300-point WR in PPR leagues.
This is why we liked Perine in 2017:
Samaje Perine (RB) – Over three seasons at Oklahoma, Perine rushed for 4,122 yards on 685 carries with 51 TDs. His best year came in his freshman year (1,821 combined yards with 21 TDs and 15 catches) due to splitting touches with Joe Mixon over the last two years. Samaje runs in a similar way as Maurice Jones-Drew where he breaks and sheds tackles at the first and second levels of the defense with an uncanny feel to keep his balance. His best success will come from power while showing sneaky separation speed at the linebacker level when tacklers are trying to get a hand on him. His top gear is well below the top RBs in the league. I don’t think he’ll be dead in the water in the passing game. He caught 40 passes for 321 yards and two TDs in his college career. Most scouts don’t believe in his value on the outside, but I see a player that will win many one-on-one battles in the open field due to his ability to beat up his opponents. His ability to score and short yardage value will help this offense be more productive in the red zone. His game has a much higher bar than Kelley and he will win the starting job from jump street. For now, LeGarrette Blount with a chance to carve out a valuable piece of this offense. Possible 250 touches for 1,100+ yards with double-digit TDs.
It will be interesting to see how the Washington backfield plays out in 2018.
Last year Joe Mixon gained 3.5 yards per rush compared to 3.4 by Perine. Here’s how there final stats from 2017 stack up:
Perine > 175/603/2 plus 22 catches for 182 yards
Mixon > 178/626/4 plus 30 catches for 287 yards
Fantasy owners are willing to make an early bet on Mixon in drafts in 2018, but he barely outplayed Perine last year. I would argue that Giovani Bernard is a better player than Chris Thompson plus he’s healthy.
So I ask you this, it Perine sucks, what is your feeling on Mixon?
- August 16, 2018 at 9:05 pm #52746
So much for Perine gaining momentum, he suffered a sprained ankle on his first carry that resulted in 30 yards. If it’s a high ankle sprain, it will be a problem for a while.
- August 16, 2018 at 9:06 pm #52747
He looked good though! hahaha
- August 17, 2018 at 10:04 am #52814Resistance is FutileParticipant
Glad I was watching the games. Pulled back a dynasty trade offer that involved receiving Perine and giving up Ty Mont, lol. Perine did look good on that run…
- August 17, 2018 at 4:37 pm #52952
Who uses a baseball analogy for a fantasy football discussion? At least you did not reference a soccer player, lol.
Shawn, I do enjoy your write-ups, they are well researched and written and provide good information for readers.
If I recall you were not one of the Perine Truthers on Scout.
Nice cherry picking players but here are the real scout site rankings for 2017 on both players.
I included the range of above and below Scouts actual slotting of Watson and Hopkins
SCOUTS 2017 QB RANKINGS
- 21 PALMER
- 22 BORTLES
- 23 FLACCO
- 24 WATSON
- 25 A SMITH
- 26 BRADFORD
- 27 GOFF
SCOUTS 2017 WR RANKINGS
- 10 COOPER
- 11 DEZ BRYANT
- 12 BALDWIN
- 13 HOPKINS
- 14 K ALLEN
- 15 D THOMAS
- 16 HILL
Those lists speak volumes.
<iframe src=”//www.youtube.com/embed/OjYoNL4g5Vg” width=”560″ height=”314″ allowfullscreen=”allowfullscreen”></iframe>
Do you really need input on Mixon compared to Perine?
Mixon > Perine
- August 17, 2018 at 10:02 pm #53051
Cherry picking or cherry kicking…it’s all the same. Breakout player = breakout player. In case you didn’t notice, I’m a dual sport player: baseball and football.
How this baseball reference? Backup RBs are like closers in waiting for baseball. Both players have minimal value until they get a lead role.
- September 13, 2018 at 11:02 am #61918
Chris Thompson Rushing 6-65-0 TD, Receiving 6-63 -1 TD 24.8 points
Samaje Perine -0-0-0 and 0-0-0 or OOOOOOH I SUCK
- September 13, 2018 at 11:22 am #61923
Good to see you have passion for this. Round one goes to Mallontown…
- September 17, 2018 at 4:01 pm #62940
More like a passion for the truth.
Chris Thompson Rushing 4-1-0 TD, Receiving 13-92 -0 TD 22.3 points
Samaje Perine -0-0-0 and 0-0-0 or OOOOOOH I SUCK AGAIN
- September 18, 2018 at 12:38 am #63051
Was Peterson ann option when I wrote my comment about Perine?
This was my only comment about Thompson:
Is this true or not true after two games? What is your point here?
- September 18, 2018 at 4:48 am #63060
Do you have an evil twin brother also named Shawn?
Here was his quote in this forum thread. “For those drafting Thompson inside of round 10, they are getting a bad read on the direction of his injury recovery. He may surprise, but I don’t feel as though he can be trusted as a playable piece to a Fantasy team in 2018. I’m avoiding until I hear a positive piece of information in his direction. For now, Chris is closer to an RB5 than an RB3 in PPR leagues.”
- September 18, 2018 at 8:22 am #63069
Was this update from the Redskins made after I had the post about Perine?
Redskins coach Jay Gruden said Chris Thompson (leg) “looks fantastic.”Thompson did not play in the preseason as he recovers from the broken leg which ended his 2017, but his coach expects him to be a full-go for Week 1. “He’s been great — his pass blocking and obviously his routes, and he’s hitting the hole,” Gruden said. “He’s ready to go.” Even with Adrian Peterson taking on the early-down work, Thompson is a great RB3/FLEX target in PPR drafts. August 28, 2018
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