- August 28, 2019 at 3:21 pm #114250Shawn ChildsParticipant
Here are five player writeups from our DFS site for Week 1. All running back options for Sunday’s game are posted there.
Nick Chubb, CIN (DK – $6,400, FD – $7,400)
Chubb has been the big mover in Fantasy drafts after Duke Johnson was traded in August. Over a nine-game stretch over the second half of 2018, he gained 952 combined yards with eight TDs ad 18 catches or 170.2 Fantasy points in DraftKings scoring (18.91 FPPG). In these nine starts, Chubb averaged over 20 touches per game. The Titans finished 7th in the league defending RBs (21.16 FPPG) with three poor showings (42.90, 36.70, and 30.90). His floor for me in this matchup is 3 X his salary. If the Browns’ offense gets rolling as expected, Chubb will be viable swing at this level.
Leonard Fournette, JAC (DK – $6,100/FD – $7,200)
Last year Fournette killed Fantasy owners after battling injuries all season. His downturn started halfway through Week 1, which led to six missed games over the first half of the year. He flashed his potential upside in Week 10 (27.90), Week 11 (22.10), and Week 12 (25.80) only to crush Fantasy teams again in the first round of the playoffs in the high-stakes market (missed game). The Chiefs were the worst team in the league defending RBs in 2018 (32.79 FPPG) with all of the damage coming over the first ten games of the season (51.30, 41.00, 35.20, 36.70, 39.10, 34.30, 78.70, and 41.40). Pretty much a gold mine for RBs, but Kansas City did improve vs. RBs over the final six games of the season. Circle player (must start) as I expect the Jaguars to beat the Chiefs in Week 1.
Dalvin Cook, MIN (DK – $6,000/FD – $7,400)
Over his first 15 games in the NFL, Cook gained 1,364 combined yards with six TDs and 51 catches. In 2018, some Fantasy owners placed a first-round draft value on him only to see him miss five games over the first half of the season. He finished as the 30th highest scoring RB in PPR leagues. Cook played well from Week 12 to Week 16 (21.0 Fantasy points per game at DraftKings) while averaging 18.5 touches per game. With another year removed from his ACL injury, he looks poised for a breakout season. Even with success expected, the Vikings did add a second RB of value (Alexander Mattison) in this year’s draft. Atlanta struggled with RBs in 2018 (29.36 FPPG), which was partly due to many injuries on defense. Eight teams scored 30.0 Fantasy points or more vs. the Falcons last year. Winnable matchup helped by a favorable salary.
Chris Carson, SEA (DK – $5,700/FD – $6,600)
Carson stole the lead RB job in 2018 for Seattle, which led to a 15th place finish in Fantasy points (15.53 per game) in PPR leagues. He had six games with over 100 yards rushing with his best play coming over the last four games of the season (483 combined yards with five TDs and seven catches on 97 touches). Even with his success, Carson did miss a pair of games while having minor offseason knee surgery. The coach-speak and a clean bill of health led to him climbing to the three-round in 12-team leagues the high-stakes market. Last year the Seahawks’ RBs combined for 2,693 yards with 16 TDs and 68 catches on 535 touches. Cincinnati ended last year at the bottom of the NFL in the defensive ranking with injuries being a part of their failure. The Bengals allowed over 30.00 Fantasy points in five games (32.40, 31.00, 57.40, 32.70, and 40.60). Seattle will get Carson move involved in the passing game this season helping his floor, but he will also lose some chances to Rashaad Penny. Priced to pay off, but the sheep will flock to him in Week 1. To be with the public or fade, that is the question with Carson in this matchup.
Matt Breida, SF (DK – $4,000/FD – $5,400)
Breida is the most explosive RB in San Fran, and his opportunity in this offense looks much brighter with Jerick McKinnon slowed by his recovery from his knee injury. In his second year in the NFL, Breida gained 5.4 yards per rush and 9.7 yards per catch while playing with backup QBs and battling an ankle injury most of the season. Jimmy Garoppolo came through the Patriots’ system where the RB position was a big part of the offense, and the 49ers head coaching featured the RB in the passing game in the Falcons’ offense in 2015 (97/775/5) and 2016 (93/946/6), which was supported by the 49ers’ RBs in 2017 (113/845/2). Last year their RBs caught 83 passes for 781 yards and three TDs. Breida will rotate in on early downs while receiving the bigger share of RB targets. His ability to make big plays in the attraction here. In 2018, Tampa gave 21 TDs to RBs with some risk in the passing game (82/690/6). If the Bucs try to shut down the run game, Breida will hit on some long catches with a chance at TD. One of the better value RBs for me in Week 1.
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