- August 27, 2019 at 1:05 pm #113954Shawn ChildsParticipant
Here are five player writeups from our DFS site for Week 1. All quarterback options for Sunday’s game are posted there.
Patrick Mahomes, KC (DK – $7,200/FD – $8,700)
Last year Mahomes was the greatest QB in the land thanks to his 30.15 Fantasy points per game. His floor was 25.0 Fantasy points in 13 of his 18 games played while delivering over 35.00 Fantasy points in four contests (three on the road). In his home game vs. Jacksonville, he passed for 313 yards and no passing TDs leading to 20.95 Fantasy points, which was helped by his rushing TD. The Jaguars ranked eighth in the NFL defending QBs in 2018 (18.84 Fantasy points per game) with eight QBs scoring fewer than 17.00 Fantasy points. I expect Jacksonville to regain their swag on defense while their offense keeps Mahomes on the sidelines for long periods. I hate to say it, but the Chiefs’ offense players look to be against the grain type options in Week 1 or traps for the Fantasy owners building their teams based on 2018 stats.
Baker Mayfield, CLE (DK – $6,400/FD – $7,900)
The rise of the Browns is set to air on September 9th. Mayfield is a next-generation QB with a gunslinger mentality. He has two elite WRs (Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry) plus an explosive RB (Nick Chubb). This combination points to plenty of points on the scoreboard. In two tough games (BAL and HOU) on the road late in the year in 2018, he passed for 397 yards and a TD and 376 yards and three TDs. Tennessee played better than expected defending QBs (6th) last year, but they did allow over 25.00 Fantasy points to the QB position in five games. Positioned to payoff while being in a tougher price range in salary. My gut says, “push all in.”
Jared Goff, LAR (DK – $6,200/FD – $7,800)
Goff ended up being a winning value QB (23.41 FPPG – 6th) in 2018 even with Todd Gurley stealing plenty of rushing TDs (17) in the red zone. He finished with about the league average in passes (561), but he gained 8.4 yards per pass attempt as a result of 19.0 percent of his completions gaining 20 yards or more. Over the first 11 contests of the year, Goff had 27 TDs with about 320 yards passing per game. His value was much less over his final eight games (playoffs included), which led to only eight combined TDs and 231 passing yards per game. The Gurley injury had to be a big part of his regression. Carolina ranked 22nd in the league defending QBs (22.26 Fantasy points per game) with only two disaster games (ATL – 34.40 and GB – 39.10). The Rams’ offense has plenty of firepower on offense, which makes them an upside ride of the Panthers in force the issue on the scoreboard.
Carson Wentz, PHI (DK – $5,700/FD – $7,600)
Last year I chased Wentz around in multiple weeks in the daily games with each investment ending in a donation. He has a top TE plus depth at WR, which points to explosiveness in the passing game. In his 11 games played in 2018, Wentz passed for 3,074 yards and 21 TDs while failing to deliver one game with over 300 yards and three TDs. He did have success in his one matchup vs. the Redskins (306/2). Washington was league average defending QBs (20.96 Fantasy points per game) last season with two teams scoring over 30.0 Fantasy points. The challenge for Philly will be a fight on the scoreboard by the Redskins. Wentz should be one of the top QB plays on the week.
Kyler Murray, ARI (DK – $5,600/FD – $7,300)
Murray will be the most intriguing quarterback to follow in Week 1 of the season. He looked sharp in his first preseason appearance (6-for-7 for 44 yards) while getting the ball out quickly and on time. Arizona kept in the pocket to minimize his risk of injury. The following week the Cardinals’ offensive line struggled in pass protection leading to a disappointing showing (3-for-8 for 12 yards). On opening day, he’ll have access to the full playbook along with his legs to create big plays in both the run and pass game. His movements and arm have a Patrick Mahomes feel. I expect him to hit the ground running, which will lead to a buzz moment in his NFL debut. The Lions were average defending QBs in 2018 while showing a higher ranking than expected vs. the run and pass. Possible 300 combined yards with three TDs should make him a solid play in the daily games.
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