The Power Fade – PGA DFS
By: Mark Farris
Tournament: Charles Schwab Challenge
Course: Colonial CC (Par 70, 7200 yards)
Location: Fort Worth, TX
Defending Champion: Kevin Na
Corollary Courses: TPC Potomac at Avenel Farms; The Old White TPC (Greenbrier)
FINALLY!! DFS Golf is returning. This week will be interesting for several reasons:
- The event takes place with no fans
- It’s June, and ZERO Majors have played
- Most, if not all, of these guys have not played a competitive round since March
I’m sure these guys have been doing something. They have access unlike many of us amateur golfers where the COVID-19 course closings varied by state. Personally, I never understood that. Honestly, it is very difficult to find any points in time – with regularity – where four amateurs are on a golf course within 6 feet of each other. I’d say on the green, but hell, if you play with some of the guys I have, putting doesn’t even break the rule!
I messed around with the Outlaw Tour a little bit, but I lacked any enthusiasm for it when I noticed the scores. I truly think I could beat some of those guys!
Colonial only has two Par 5s. One is over 600 yards but still plays as one of the easiest holes on the course. The other is the easiest hole. So, taking advantage of the Par 5s this week carries a little more weight than normal because (1) they are historically easy and (2) they are limited.
The fairways are relatively narrow which will help the shorter hitters somewhat. But we all know the bombers may simply take the approach of “let it fly” especially since the rough isn’t too penalizing. Still, position is key on a lot of holes so even that concept may be limited.
Given the fact that Par 4s are the majority of the holes – and the Par 3s aren’t easy – Par 4 scoring will be one of the major stats to look at. Additionally, since the greens are bentgrass, putting on that surface can also be used in your analysis.
Now, for those of you that have read my articles before, you know I’m a current form, course history and “gut” player. Golf is so variant and statistics do matter, but I’ve always found that the way a guy has been playing can flip a statistic on its head. Don’t worry! Unless he has changed his approach, my partner in crime, Alex White, will give you a great statistical breakdown with his “The Burning Edge” article.
With my current time constraints, I’m going to try to keep this article as straight forward as I can for you. I’ll give you three to five players in in each salary range that I pick (it may vary by week depending on pricing). This may be broken down in to Tier 1 & 2 in the top price range because, on any given week, any of these guys are capable of winning. I’ll also give you my
- “Pick to Win”
- “Gut Pick to Win” – my longshot that is usually under $8K or less in salary,
- “Salary Relief”, and
- MY “Power Fade”.
$9,000 & Up: Tier 1: John Rahm, Justin Thomas & Sungjae Im
Tier 2: Rory McIlroy, Webb Simpson, & Xander Schauffele
$7,500 to $8,900: Marc Leishman, Matt Kuchar, Tony Finau, Scottie Scheffler, and Harris English
$7,000 to $7,400: Abraham Ancer, Cameron Smith, Ian Poulter, Adam Hadwin and Phil Mickelson (only because he has played in The Match)
These are guys that fall at the lower end of the salary scale that I think will offer you a strong likelihood of making the cut and also a productive amount of points. In the past, I think I’ve even picked some of these guys as my “Gut Pick to Win”. This week, I’m looking at:
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout (honestly, I just like the name – LMAO!) – $7300
- Branden Grace – $7100
- Lanto Griffin – $6900
- Sung Kang – $6800
- Xinjun Zhang – $6400
- Doc Redman – $6300
Pick to Win: John Rahm
Gut Pick to Win: Ian Poulter
My reason for fading Justin Rose is simply that he was struggling before the layoff. I could just as easily put Jordan Spieth here for his weekend inconsistencies, but he’s priced $1,000 less and his ROI may be better if he has worked out the kinks during the layoff.
While I’ve listed several guys in the various price ranges, I want to provide a few more names for you guys that enjoy the site.
Bryson DeChambeau – He’s The Scientist. This can fall one of two ways. Either he has been able to further “hone” his game during the layoff or he’s done some much thinking that he may try to use the grip end of the club for more “precise” contact.
Collin Morikawa – This guy hasn’t missed a cut, well maybe, since he was born. He is at the lower end of the upper price range and he is a solid play. I don’t think he will win, but first page of the Leader Board is a good bet.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout – I know I mentioned him above, but for the FullTime Fantasy members, I like to give a little more perspective as to why. Yes, the name is AWESOME!! But, this guy is a good player and, in his last four tournaments both in Europe and here, his worst finish is a T29.
Tony Finau – He’s a long hitter that isn’t afraid to play position golf. He reminds me a lot of a young Ernie Els where the swing is controlled and effortless, yet the ball goes a long way. His control and willingness to go 3-wood or long iron instead of driver can make him a valuable asset here.
Slack Chat is an important tool offered here. I’m on it regularly. It is IMPOSSIBLE to touch on every potential lineup option in an article. If you have questions, ask! If you have an idea, lay it out! If I can’t come up with a rationale to talk you out of it, use it! Your GUT can be a key in PGS-DFS.
REMEMBER, it’s called GOLF because all of the other 4-letter words were taken!