Marquez – nasty on the road with a 2.98 era, .198 average and 35% k rate. 6 straight quality starts, while also going 7 innings in 6 of those games. (Risk factor 4)
Musgrove – Matt Carpenter went down last night with what looked to be a stomach bug. If anyone has kids, WE ALLLLLLLLLL know this thing spreads like wild fire. So, let’s go with that theory. He’s been better on the road with a 2.92 ERA. (Risk factor 5)
Ray – Ok this is the absolute riskiest play of the night. Ray has been hammered recently, even on the road. But, let’s look at his history against LA in Dodgertown. In 3 starts last year (yes I know they’re a different team) here’s his lines…….
7.2 innings 0 runs 14 k’s
6 innings 1 run 13 k’s
6 innings 1 run 10 k’s
So, as you can see he likes pitching in LA. Again THIS IS RISKY AS HELL. But, he’s cheaper than he should be and the k upside is there. Let’s hope he rights the ship. (Risk factor 7)
Gant – He’s been ok at home this year limiting hitters to just a .186 average, while Only allowing a home once every 10 innings. He’s not going to strike out a ton of guys, but at his price all we want is 25 points and let our bats work. (Risk factor 5)
Colorado righties – Lauer has allowed a .305 average and 10 home runs to righties with 7 of those coming at home. Desmond – DJ – Story – Nolan
Houston righties – Heaney just got blown up by this team, and has allowed 8 home runs to righties on the road, along with a 5.37 era. Yuli – Bregman – White – Marwin – Correa
Seattle lefties – lefties crush him, especially at home. He’s given up a .339 average and 4.01 era. Seager – Span – Cano – Haniger – Cruz
Boston – Giolito has pitched better recently, but his 8.10 home era and 11 home runs given up are a recipe for disaster tonight. I like the lefties a bit more here, but Betts/JD/X are all fine to complete the stack.