Welcome to the final 2 game slate of the NFL season. Do not mention that stupid Pro Bowl / Super Bowl contests to me… They’re ultimate randomness…. The only thing more random would be the NFL team with the fewest missed tackles all year having their stud safety who has never given up a touchdown whiff on a fluke play at the worst time in an NFC Divisional Game……. No, I’m not hurting still…..
OK, Yes I am.
Onto this weeks games.
STRATEGY
A few strategy notes on the 2 game slate this weekend
- Find the weakest position and identify if there is anyone there you lock in no matter what the chalk because you can’t beat them….
- What is a deep position with a big name guy that you can easily fade down with someone else and hope to beat 1:1..
- Do not be afraid to stack a game, or stack two teams….
- Stack WR even without QB…. The Theory is that there are limited WR, so I want to try and get the guys getting all the volume where one team will score a passing TD>……. Diggs & Theilen together….. Hogan & Cooks together or Edelman….
- Defense is playing for a score this week… All four have decent floors.
GAME THEORY
Jacksonville (+7.5) @ New England … I like the Jags to cover this game. No, it has nothing to do with the Brady hand injury. I just feel the Jags have the defense to get after Brady. New England was one of the worst teams in terms of protecting against the rush statistically but I think that doesn’t really tell the true story with the Pats. Brady doesn’t mind being blitzed, he will carve you out. The difference here with Jacksonville is that they’ll get that 4 man rush that the Giants used to get on Brady to prove his kryptonite. I also really like the Jags offense to move the ball (maybe not score) but move it enough to keep the clock moving and keep this game lower scoring. My pick is the Pats win by 4 in a lower scoring game, 23-19.
Minnesota @ Philadelphia (+3) … The Vikings are the better team. They have the better skill players and the more consistent defense. But the Vikings are starting to show some cracks on the defense due to players being banged up. I think this game is going to go over as we have good weather conditions for a late January night game and two defenses who are going to be looking to make some big plays, which could lead to busted coverages and an exciting game. Between the two I think this is less likely to be chalk on the DFS slate but it has just as good of a chance of being a nice back and forth game. Not a game that will go over into the 60’s, but definitely over the 38.5 total. My pick is the Eagles win 23-20.
MY PICKS
Players in BOLD are my primary plays.
Quarterback
Tom Brady & Nick Foles.
I expect Brady to dominate ownership with both Bortles and Keenum being about the same for second. Foles should be the lowest. He is the weakest of the four and has the toughest matchup IMO. But I like Foles a lot this week because I am in love with Zach Ertz and a couple secondary passing options like Corey Clement and Nelson Agholor. Brady is on my main lineup, but Foles is on a second lineup.
No, seriously. Nick Foles…..
Running Back
Dion Lewis, Len Fournette, Jay Ajayi, Jerrick McKinnon, Corey Clement
This is the hardest position this week because you cannot screw up here. Lewis is the best back with the best between the 20’s volume. We saw White vulture him as he does in the playoffs last week and Burkhead is expected back this week too. I still like Lewis though and feel he’s too hard to pass up on.
Fournette is the guy who the Jags need to really show up and based on the first two post-season games they have no issues giving him the ball 25 times — which they have to do here even if it isn’t working early. A decent pivot if you are fading him is TJ Yeldon, Fournette is fragile as we know and Yeldon is the guy in the 2 minute drill. If they are behind late, I can see Yeldon being used in catch up mode. Get him in DK as your flex if you go this route.
Corey Clement is a longshot, but I have a hard time trusting Ajayi against that Minny rush D and I have a hard time trusting Blount to get solid goal line work again. Clement is another FLEX option on DK and could be one matchup challenge for the Vikings linebackers.
Jerrick McKinnon is the guy I prefer in a game I think has more points than people expect. The Eagles rushing D is no joke and I want none of Lat Murray. I will likely have no Vikings RB’s but wanted to share my preference between the two.
Fade Consideration: If anyone, Leonard Fournette
Wide Receiver
Adam Theielen, Brandin Cooks, Chris Hogan, Marquise Lee, Nelson Agholor, Keelan Cole, Stefon Diggs
Thielen is the guy above everyone else for me this week. He’s physical and has a better matchup this week and should be the best WR to get 100 yards. Play him at a position I think is really thin and we gotta start 3 guys. Eat his chalk.
Brandin Cooks and or Hogan will be on every lineup I consider. If the Jags decide to move Ramsey on Gronk at times then Cooks becomes a HUGE upside play. Hogan was someone that everyone jumped on last week as he returned but he did little. I expect him to have a huge game this week.
We’re guessing really with the Jags receivers. Marqise Lee at $4400 on DK is too cheap for what he should give you in a 7 point floor. Keelan Cole is the one to take a deep shot on if you go chalk elsewhere. New England has routinely given up long passes for scores this season and Cole is the guy I like to take advantage of that. Otherwise, Lee is the safe play.
The only Philadelphia Eagle that I have minimal interest in is Nelson Agholor. Yes, I am on Nick Foles, but it’s 100% related to Zach Ertz.
Tight End
Zach Ertz, Rob Gronkowski
This is where I get off the chalk. Most will be on gronk or Rudolph. Not me. The Vikes LB are their weakness in this matchup and Ertz is the only hope for the Eagles to score points in the red zone. I think he gets a huge share of targets this week and scores twice.
I will have zero Gronk…. I expect this to age well like the Saints 24-23 lead.
Fade consideration: Gronk (Send help)
Defense
Jags, Eagles
You cannot go wrong picking anyone, but I like these two the most…. Eagles D is going to have to play well and force turnovers for them to win.
BOLD PREDICTIONS
- Gronk gets hurt and doesn’t reach 10 fantasy points
- Eagles special teams score a TD
- Eagles win
- Jags cover, but lose on a defensive penalty
