This article gives a quick overview of my favorite plays on the slate. For a more detailed article please take a look at Steve Renner’s Donger Club.
Wainwright had a few good starts right before he injured his hamstring (32.6 and 20.7 DK points). Tonight he faces a Marlins team that has trouble with the curve-ball and he throws this pitch over 40% of the time. This year at Busch Staduim Wainwright has a 2.31 ERA, limits batters to a .236 average, K rate increases 5% to 23% and GB rate goes up 5% as well to 51%. Looking at 7 innings 7Ks and 1 ER.
*High tier arms- Jake Oddorizzi & Charlie Morton. Prefer to pay down today but like Oddorizzi a bit more vs the Royals.
Chatwood is dirt cheap on both sites and gets a decent matchup vs the Mets tonight. He has been known to have a high walk rate but lowered it by 5% this year so far and the Mets walk at a low 7% rate. The Mets current lineup strikes out at a 25% clip vs RHP and Chatwood. The lineup also consists of 5-6 RHH’s which Chatwood has limited to a .178 average. At home this year he has a 1.89 ERA and an elite 55% GB rate. I do not expect a clean game but do expect him to pay off his price tags. Looking at 5-6 innings 4-5Ks and 2-3 runs.
People tend to pick on Bundy and I have in the past as well, but I like this spot for him tonight against beat up Mariners team. The Mariners current lineup strikes out at a 28% clip and a .289 wOBA vs RHP. On the road Bundy has done well vs RHHs holding them to a .137 average and striking them out at a 37% clip in 15 innings. Looking at 6 innings 8Ks and 2 ERs(HRs from Vogelbach and Beckham).
Sparkman vs LHHs .290 average, 50% HC, 2.6 HRs/9 and a low K rate.
*Kepler, Polanco & Rosario all have over .200 ISO vs RHP with Kepler over .300.
*Astudillo , Cave and Castro are cheaper options in play as well.
*Kepler is my favorite bat from the Twins. Astudillo and Cave are both nice value plays with power upside.
The Phillies face off against the low strike out arm of Erick Fedde in a nice hitters park with warm weather and wind.
*Kingery, Hoskins and Bruce all have over a .200 ISO vs RHP this year.
*Harper & Realmuto also hit well vs RHP and are I olay.
Houston Astros – low ownership
The Astros will see Green for about 2 innings and then get Nestor Cortez a lefty. This is a nice park upgrade for the Astros. The prices have come down making them easier to stack.
Bregman, Altuve, Chirinos, Mariankick & Reddick all have over .200 ISO vs LHP on the year with White and Guriel also hitting well.
CORE: Bregman, Altuve, Reddick, Chirinos
VALUE: Marisnick, White- both HR potential vs LHP.
Kike Hernandez (2B/OF)
Kike leading off vs Bumgarner is something I have been playing for well over a year now and he has not disappointed yet. Hitting 24 for 48 with 4 HRs and 6 doubles so far. Hernandez hits most of his HRs at home where the Dodgers are playing tonight with some wind blowing out. Excellent value play tonight and can be used along with Justin Turner and Max Muncy.
Justin Upton (OF)
Upton came back off the DL and crushed a HR in his first at bat. HRs in 2 of the 3 games he has played and faces a mediocre LHP tonight. Richards has been prone to HRs and has allowed a .412 wOBA and .301 ISO to RHHs. Another day and another Angels stack. Trout, Upton, Calhoun, Ohtani and Lucroy all in play.
Schwarber has hit 5 HRs and 3 doubles over the last 8 games with a HC rate of 44%. He faces a rookie pitcher who has thrown 15 innings allowing 22 hits and 16 runs in he majors. Excellent spot for Schwarber and some of the Cubs. Schwarber my favorite, but can play Bryant, Rizzo and Baez who all hit well vs RHP.
Dietrich and the Reds face Jimmy Nelson who has struggled with control this year walking 6 batters over 7 innings and he allowed 8 runs in that timeframe. This year Dietrich has smashed RHP with a.406 wOBA , .410 ISO and 43% HC rate and has had multi 2-3 HR games. Like Dietrich, Winker and Puig as a sneaky trio tonight.
David Bote- hits RHP well with a .377 wOBA and .210. Sneaky HR potential.
Pedro Severino- .441 wOBA and .331 ISO vs LHP