Daily Dr. Roto—October 17, 2019
Week 7 Thursday Night Preview
Mahomes seems almost human this season, but that is mainly due to injuries (his own as well as his receivers) and a porous offensive line. The problem is that we, as fantasy owners, are used to seeing Mahomes throwing for 400+ passing yards and 3-4 TDs per week. That is just not happening this season. Look for Mahomes to be around 260-280 yards tonight and 2 TDs. Still a great game, just not the monster game that his owners are hoping for.
I know that the Chiefs defense has been bad, but the way to beat them is by running the football, which the Broncos will do plenty on Thursday night. I would be surprised to see Flacco throw more than 25 times unless the game script gets flipped and they are playing from behind. I would only start Flacco if I was in a two QB league and even then I wouldn’t feel great about it.
The biggest mystery of the season has been why Andy Reid has abandoned using Williams in favor of LeSean McCoy. McCoy has run well, but it’s Williams who is the better dual threat capable of making a fantasy impact. I have a feeling that Williams will be more involved in the offense tonight and I would be in favor of starting him.
McCoy still has value as he gets about 12-15 touches per game and has been heavily involved in the offensive scheme. Denver’s run defense was horrible earlier this season (specifically against Jacksonville), but they have clamped down the past two games. I have a feeling that with Mahomes throwing the ball, there might be more running lanes open, so I think McCoy is a play tonight as well.
We have learned in the past few weeks that the way to beat the Chiefs is by pounding the football at them over and over and over. I expect that so long as they are winning, Freeman will see at least 20 carries if not more. Just like with Carlos Hyde last week, Freeman’s box score might be the key to the game. If Freeman runs for over 80 yards, the Broncos have a great chance of winning.
Lindsay will be heavily involved in the offense on Thursday, not only running the football, but as a receiver out of the backfield. Look for him to have about 15 touches which should give him 15 fantasy points if not more.
I know that Chris Harris is one of the top shut down corners in the NFL, but is there really anyone who can shut down Hill? He’s so fast that he can get by any defender with ease—including Harris. The only caveat to Hill this week is that I think he plays well but won’t have a huge game. That certainly doesn’t mean that I would not start him, it just means that I am expecting 80 yards and a TD and not much more.
Byron Pringle/Demarcus Robinson/Mecole Hardman
Honestly, I will not be playing any of these guys tonight. With Hill and Kelce both playing, I can’t imagine how any of these other receivers gets enough targets to make a fantasy impact. One of them might win you a DFS GPP tournament if you guess correctly, but in seasonal leagues, staying away is the best idea.
Sutton has stepped up his game this year and is becoming one of the top WR2 in football. That said, this is a tougher matchup for him because his success will be game flow dependent. If the Chiefs are winning, Denver will be throwing the football and Sutton could have a nice game. If Denver is winning, they will run the ball a ton and throw shorter passes to Sanders and Fant and not take shots downfield to Sutton.
I think Sanders is in the best spot for success tonight. If the Chiefs can improve their run defense to force a few 3rd and long plays, Flacco will use Sanders extensively. I don’t see Sanders having a huge game, but 6-7 receptions for 80 yards is a distinct possibility.
Denver has been rather stingy against opposing tight ends (they are one of the top ten best teams statistically), but I am ALWAYS starting Kelce regardless of the situation. I don’t see a huge game from him tonight, but if he can go 5 for 60 and a TD, the Chiefs and his Fantasy owners will be happy.
Kansas City is the ninth-worst team against opposing tight ends, so there might be a glimmer of hope for Fant tonight. I wouldn’t get ultra-excited to play him, but I can see him being a contrarian play in DFS circles more than anything.