ACES
- Trevor Bauer (Indians) vs. CWS, vs. DET
- Jose Berrios (Twins) vs. BOS, vs. TEX
- Gerrit Cole (Astros) vs. TB, vs. KC
- Jacob deGrom (Mets) @COL, vs. LAD
- Zack Greinke (Diamondbacks) @LAA, @PIT
- Miles Mikolas (Cardinals) @PHI, @MIL
- Chris Sale (Red Sox) @MIN, vs. SEA
GREEN LIGHT
Jaime Barria (Angels) vs. ARI, vs. TOR
Barria isn’t as good as the surface stats show, but he has two solid matchups at home. He is 5-2 with a 2.61 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 18.9 percent strikeout rate and 5.3 percent walk rate.
Jhoulys Chacin (Brewers) @PIT, vs. STL
Chacin is rolling. He is 6-1 with a 3.32 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 18.7 percent strikeout rate and 9.7 percent walk rate. He had a 4.54 ERA in April, 2.73 in May and 2.00 in June. With the strength of the Brewers’ bullpen, Chacin doesn’t need to do much to be in a position to win.
Dylan Covey (White Sox) @CLE, vs. OAK
Covey had a 7.71 ERA last season but has improved. He is 3-1 with a 1.29 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 22.2 percent strikeout rate and 7.4 percent walk rate. He has yet to allow a home run in 35.1 innings and has a 61 percent groundball rate and 29.5 percent hard-hit rate.
Domingo German (Yankees) @WAS, @TB
German is coming off two terrific starts, but they were against the lowly Mets and Rays. He has 19 strikeouts and two walks in 12 innings. The Nationals start could be a problem, placing him in the lower tier of this section.
Cole Hamels (Rangers) @KC, @MIN
Hamels is auditioning for contenders and has a 3.69 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 23.2 percent strikeout rate and nine percent walk rate.
Kenta Maeda (Dodgers) @CHC, @NYM
Maeda went five innings in his first start off the DL. He has a 3.61 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 28.1 percent strikeout rate and 8.5 percent walk rate.
Mike Montgomery (Cubs) vs. LAD, @CIN
Montgomery has pitched well since going into the starting rotation. In 23.2 innings, he has a 1.14 ERA, 0.68 WHIP and a 14:3 K:BB ratio. While he’s not getting a lot of strikeouts, he has a 62 percent groundball rate.
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Nick Pivetta (Phillies) vs. STL, @WAS
Pivetta is struggling and hasn’t pitched more than five innings in his last four starts. He has had some unfortunate luck, so stick with him. He has a 4.25 ERA (3.10 FIP), 1.24 WHIP, 26.9 percent strikeout rate and seven percent walk rate. He has a 29.2 percent hard-hit rate and 11.1 percent swinging strike rate.
Carlos Rodon (White Sox) @CLE, vs. OAK
The issue for Rodon is walks. He has made two starts since coming off the DL against the Indians and Red Sox. He went five innings in each and was solid considering the tough opponents. He has 11 strikeouts and five walks in ten innings.
Caleb Smith (Marlins) @SF, @COL
Smith has pitched well, and it will be a dicey call since he has a start in Coors Field. Those protecting ratios might want to sit him. Smith has a 3.75 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 27.8 percent strikeout rate and ten percent walk rate.
Blake Snell (Rays) @HOU, vs. NYY
The matchups are as tight as they get, but Snell has evolved into a top pitcher. He is 8-4 with a 2.58 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 27.8 percent strikeout rate, and 8.3 percent walk rate.
Andrew Suarez (Giants) vs. MIA, vs. SD
The matchups don’t get much better, and he’s at home. In his last three starts, Suarez has a 3.31 ERA. While Suarez has a 4.92 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP, he hasn’t been as bad as the ERA shows. He has a 3.84 FIP, 22.8 percent strikeout rate, five percent walk rate and 49 percent groundball rate.
Luke Weaver (Cardinals) @PHI, @MIL
In leagues of 12 teams or fewer, he belongs on the bench. He is 3-6 with a 4.52 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 20.3 percent strikeout rate and an 8.2 percent walk rate. The strikeout rate is down 8.3 percent, the walk rate is up 1.4 percent, and the hard-hit rate is up 5.2 percent. In his last four starts, he hasn’t pitched more than 5.1 innings.
Jameson Taillon (Pirates) vs. MIL, vs. ARI
Taillon has a 3.94 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 22 percent strike rate and 6.5 percent walk rate. Look for a strong finish.
RED LIGHT
Tyler Anderson (Rockies) vs. NYM, vs. MIA
These are solid matchups, but rolling a pitcher twice in Coors Field is dangerous.
Tyler Chatwood (Cubs) vs. LAD, @CIN
Chatwood has a 19.9 percent walk rate. That’s not a typo. It’s 19.9. He walked two in five innings in his last start against the Cubs, but he was still missing spots by wide margins.
Marco Gonzales (Mariners) @NYY, @BOS
I like Gonzales and own him in several leagues. These are two of the worst matchups, even if both teams don’t hit left-handers well. He has a 3.42 ERA and 1.28 WHIP and has allowed six earned runs over his last 38.1 innings.
Sonny Gray (Yankees) @WAS, @TB
Gray hasn’t been consistent at all. The start against the Nationals lowers him. He allowed seven hits and four runs in five innings against them in that poor game. He has a 4.98 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, and a 10.5 percent walk rate.
Ian Kennedy (Royals) vs. TEX, @HOU
A 5.13 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP with a matchup against one of the best offenses in baseball.
Trevor Williams (Pirates) vs. MIL, vs. ARI
Williams was pitching over his head, and it’s beginning to catch up to him. He had a 2.29 ERA in April, 5.51 in May and allowed 12 runs – seven earned – in six innings this month.
Other Red Light Pitchers
- Paul Blackburn (A’s) @SD, @CWS
- Bartolo Colon (Rangers) @KC, @MIN
- Erick Fedde (Nationals) vs. NYY, vs. PHI
- Jaime Garcia (Blue Jays) vs. ATL, @LAA
- David Hess (Orioles) @WAS, @ATL
- Eric Lauer (Padres) vs. OAK, @SF
- German Marquez (Rockies) vs. NYM, vs. MIA
- Sal Romano (Reds) vs. DET, vs. CHC
- Jason Vargas (Mets) @COL, vs. LAD
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