Week 13 WR Report
Matchup Risk/Against the Grain
Tough Matchup with Limited Upside
Julio Jones (DK – $8,600/FD – $8,600): Jones went from Fantasy dud to Fantasy stud in one easy week. Last week Julio had 12 catches for 268 combined yards and two TDs to move him to the third ranking at WR in PPR leagues. It was his third game with over 100 yards passing in a game and his fifth game with double digit targets. He's now on a pace for 96 catches for 1,511 yards and four TDs on 147 targets. Over his last four games, he averaged 11.25 targets per game (9.2 on the year). The Vikings are 19th in the league defending WRs (137/1701/8 on228 targets) with only one WR gaining over 100 yards receiving (Marvin Jones – 6/109/2). Six WRs have six catches or more against Minnesota. Jones should be active in this game, but his lack of scoring ability does hurt his play ability with his higher salary. On the rise so the winners from last week should double down on him in a couple of spots. CB Xavier Rhodes does have talent, but he can’t handle Julio for the whole game with one-on-one coverage.
Keenan Allen (DK – $8,300/FD – $8,100): After wondering his way through five games mid-season (4/67, 5/45, 3/41, 4/61, and 4/48) with eight targets per game, Keenan turned into a Fantasy gold mine in his last two starts (12/159/2 and 11/172/1 on 27 combined targets). In his last two games, he caught 85.2 percent of his targets. His success pushed his salary to the top shelf, which requires 30+ Fantasy points in PPR leagues. Allen is on pace for 97 catches for 1,348 yards and six TDs on 156 targets. The Browns sit 8th in the NFL defending WRs (108/1425/10 on 170 targets) with only two WRs gaining over 100 yards (Antonio Brown – 11/182 and T.Y. Hilton – 7/153/1). Keenan will be active in this game with a good chance at 20+ Fantasy points if he scores, but his salary will require more. I sense a trap.
Brandin Cooks (DK – $7,700/FD – $7,600): Cooks has a higher floor over the last three games with Chris Hogan injured. He has six catches in each of his last three games leading to 306 combined yards with two TDs and 27 targets. His recent success pushed him to 8th in WR scoring in PPR leagues while being the sixth best WR over the last three games. The Bills rank 12th in the league vs. WRs (144/1674/7 on 235 targets) with three WRs having plus games (A.J. Green – 7/189/1, Michael Thomas – 9/117, and Keenan Allen – 12/159/2). Ten WRs have six catches or more against Buffalo. On the move with a rising salary. Prior to last week, the Bills allowed 135 points over three games with two coming at home so Tom Brady should have his way in this matchup with Cooks being part of the fun ride.
Adam Thielen (DK – $7,500/FD – $7,800): Thielen has been exceptional over his last six games (41 catches for 613 yards and three TDs on 67 targets) highlight by his success in Week 10 (8/166/1) and Week 11 (6/123/1). He has five catches or more in each game in 2017 leading to his growth over the last month. The Falcons are 11th in the league vs. WRs (125/1411/8 on 206 targets). Only one WR has over 100 yards against Atlanta (Robby Anderson – 6/104/1). Randall Cobb (6/60), Jarvis Landry (8/62/1), and Golden Tate (7/58/1) were steady out of the slot against the Falcons. Winnable matchup vs. CB Brian Poole with a solid floor. His recent path should put him in your thoughts on some tickets.
DeAndre Hopkins (DK – $7,300/FD – $8,000): For those Fantasy owners who bailed on Hopkins after the injury to Deshaun Watson, they made a huge mistake. Over the last four games with Tom Savage behind center, DeAndre has 24 catches for 398 yards and two TDs on 49 targets. He has eight TDs in his last eight games while averaging 11.4 targets per game. In Week 4, Hopkins had ten catches for 107 yards and a TD on 12 targets against the Titans. Tennessee can have risk at times defending WRs (HOU – 17/186/3, CIN – 13/220/2, and PIT – 16/221/3) while also offering an edge vs. weaker teams (MIA – 8/62/1, CLE – 7/58, and IND – 5/65). Overall, the Titans allow 6.6 yards per pass attempt (strong number) with WRs catching 15 TDs. His matchup against CB Adoree Jackson looks favorable. Priced to pay off.
Mike Evans (DK – $7,100/FD – $7,500): Evans doesn't have a TD in his last four games while still looking for his first game with over 100 yards receiving. Mike averages 9.6 targets per game. His floor tends to be high (five catches or more in eight games and 60 yards or more in eight games). The Packers allow the 4th most Fantasy points to WRs (142/1927/13 on 213 targets) with three of his last five opponents gaining over 200 yards from the WR position (NO – 16/254/1, DET – 16/249/2, and PIT – 17/230/3). Excellent matchup against this secondary and CB Kareem Jackson with added value with Jameis Winston back behind center. May kind of ride with multi TD upside.
Sterling Shepard (DK – $7,000/FD – $6,700): Shepard crushed Fantasy owners over the last couple of weeks due to his battle with migraines. Sterling looked poised to be a nice backend starting option in PPR leagues when he lit up the 49ers for 11 catches for 142 yards on 13 targets. Over his last two games as the WR1 for New York, Shepard has 22 targets. The change to Geno Smith at QB is a slight downgrade, but Eli Manning had a short completion rate in four of his last five games (48.7, 55.6, 54.3, and 48.1). The Raiders are 24th in the league against WRs (132/1640/11) with three WRs gaining over 100 yards (Mike Wallace – 3/133, Tyreek Hill – 6/125/1, and Brandin Cooks – 6/149/1). Tough to trust especially with a huge salary.
Michael Thomas (DK – $6,900/FD – $7,600): Thomas ranks 13th in WR scoring after 11 games even with only one game with over 100 yards receiving and two TDs. Michael doesn't have a TD in his last seven games. In Week 3, he had 7 catches for 87 yards and a TD on eight targets against the Panthers. In that game, Thomas was on his way to a monster game when he caught five passes for 50 yards with a TD on the Saints opening drive. Game score led to many runs in the second half and minimal upside. Carolina fell to 26th in the NFL against WRs (131/1621/11 on 213 targets) while showing fade over their last three games (44/648/5). Only two WRs have over 100 yards receiving vs. the Panthers (Adam Thielen – 9/157 and Cooper Kupp – 8/116). CB James Bradberry is fading giving Michael a chance for an impactful game. His TD scoreless streak ends this week. Dark horse to be the top WR on the week.
Devin Funchess (DK – $6,800/FD – $7,500): After a mid-season lull (3/36, 4/41, and 2/11 on 23 targets), Funchess is gaining momentum over the last three games (5/86, 5/92/2, and 7/108) with only a slight bump in targets (25). Over his last eight games, Funchess averaged 9.4 targets per game. On the year, he has three games with over 20 Fantasy points in DraftKings' scoring. In Week 3, Funchess had four catches for 58 yards on ten targets against the Saints. New Orleans drifted back to 15th in WR defense after struggling last week vs. the Rams (20/243/2 on 32 targets) with two of the Saints starting CBs injured. Possible chaser works in his favor with Cam Newton having minimal depth in the passing game behind him. Bottom line here will be the health and availability of CB Marshon Lattimore.
Tyreek Hill (DK – $6,700/FD – $6,900): Hill has seven catches in each of his last two games with 18 combined targets. He had a season high 11 targets in Week 12, but Tyreek gained only 5.9 yards per rush. His best two games came in Week 1 (7/133/1) and Week 7 (6/125/1) so Week 13 falls within his 2017 rhythm. The Jets are 23rd defending WRs (128/1565/11 on 218 targets) with no team gaining over 200 yards from the WR position. Only one WR has over 100 yards against New York (Devin Funchess – 7/108). Thirteen WRs have six catches or more against the Jets. Steady player this week who needs to hit on a long TD to reach his salary level. KC looks to be fading offensively so most Fantasy owners will look elsewhere for upside in the daily games. Nice floor so don’t write him off.
Davante Adams (DK – $6,500/FD – $6,500): Fantasy owners don't have any complaints about Adams over the last four games after the injury to Aaron Rodgers. Davante has 30 catches for 351 yards and two TDs on 36 targets over this stretch. He has seven TDs over his last ten games while averaging 8.2 targets per game on the year. Tampa allows the most Fantasy points to WRs (169/2285/14 on 250 targets) with crazy failure in the last two games (MIA – 17/301/2 and ATL – 23/333/2). Four other teams have over 200 yards receiving from their WRs. When this secondary fails, it results in big scores at WR (Stefon Diggs – 8/173/2, Larry Fitzgerald – 10/138/1, Kenny Stills -7/180/1, and Julio Jones – 12/253/2). Very good matchup with an edge vs. CB Robert McClain.
Cooper Kupp (DK – $6,400/FD – $6,300): Over the last three games, Cooper has 20 catches for 227 yards on 25 targets highlighted by his best game in the NFL in Week 12 (8/116). One of his three TDs came in Week 7 vs. the Cardinals (4/54/1). Kupp has two games with double digit targets. Arizona ranks 21st vs. WRs (126/1785/11 on 227 targets), but they've only allowed one passing TDs over their last four games. The only WR with over 100 yards receiving vs. the Cardinals was Golden Tate (10/107) in Week 1. On the rise plus the injury to Robert Woods does create a better window for targets. His jump in salary makes him a harder start in the daily game.
Robby Anderson (DK – $6,300/FD – $7,200): Anderson had a TD in five straight games (six total). Last week he had his best game (6/146/2) of his young career pushing him to the 14th ranking at WR in PPR leagues. Over his last six games, Robby has 27 catches for 494 yards and six TDs on 45 targets. This week he'll play his fourth game at home over his last six games. Kansas City still has risk defending WRs (31st – 130/1885/16 on 235 targets) with most of their failure coming in three games (HOU – 9/158/5, OAK – 16/258/3, and DAL – 20/244/2). Marcus Peters is a talented CB, but he tend to lineup on one side of the field most of the time allow Anderson to get favorable coverage away from him. Hot player with a rising salary coming off a career game points to step back in production in the daily games.
Stefon Diggs (DK – $6,200/FD – $7,000): Diggs lost the WR1 role for the Vikings in Week 5. He had his best two games in Week 1 (7/93/2) and Week 3 (8/173/2). Over his last four games, Stefon has 23 catches for 193 yards and a TD on 24 targets. His best performance over this span came vs. the Redskins (4/78/1). He lines up on the side of the field with CB Desmond Trufant on about half the plays, which will limit his explosiveness. Trufant may not play this week due to a concussion, which would help Diggs. Overlooked now with Adam Thielen playing so well, but Stefon still has impact upside with the right matchup. Week 13 could be his week to shine.
Golden Tate (DK – $6,100/FD – $7,100): Tate has back-to-back short games (3/32 and 4/7), which came after four good games (7/96/1, 7/86, 7/113, and 6/97/1). Golden averages 7.5 targets per game with low value in TDs (3). The Ravens are the second-best team in the NFL vs. WRs (115/1399/5 on 208 targets). They've only allowed two passing TDs to WRs over the last six games. Baltimore allowed over 100 receiving to a WR in each of the last two games (Davante Adams – 8/126 and DeAndre Hopkins – 7/125). Tate will have an edge over CB Maurice Canady, but this game won't be played at fast pace. More steady than impactful.
Marvin Jones (DK – $6,000/FD – $7,100): Other than a down game in Week 10 (1/22 on two targets), Jones has been five strong games (6/96/1, 6/128, 7/107/2, 4/85/1, and 6/109/2) in his last six starts. Marvin averaged 8.9 targets per game over his last seven games. CB Brandon Carr is far from a lock down cover corner giving Jones a chance at continued success. Not a great matchup based on the overall play by the Rams defense. Avoid for me in the daily games.
Larry Fitzgerald (DK – $6,000/FD – $7,400): The Jaguars held Fitzgerald to three catches for 12 yards on eight targets last week after playing well in his previous two games (10/113 and 9/91/1). His best two games came at home in Week 3 (13/149/1) and Week 6 (10/138/1). Larry did struggle in his matchup in LA (3/29). The Rams are 7th league vs. WRs (123/1585/7 on 213 targets). Three WRs have over 100 yards receiving against LA (Pierre Garcon – 7/142, DeAndre Hopkins – 7/111, and Adam Thielen – 6/123/1). His matchup against CB Nickell Robey-Coleman looks neutral.
Jarvis Landry (DK – $5,900/FD – $6,900): Landry has been one of the steadier WRs in the league in 2017. He has double digit Fantasy points in eight of his 11 games while averaging 10.6 targets per game. Jarvis has a TD in six of his last eight games. Last season he had 16 catches of 20 yards or more compared to only two this season. Denver ranks third in NFL defending WRs (98/1228/11 on 166 targets). No team has over 160 receiving against the Broncos at WR. Only one WR has over 80 yards receiving vs. Denver (Alshon Jeffrey – 6/84/2). Chris Harris is one of the better CBs in the league, which will limit Landry's scoring ability. Only a 5/50 type opportunity so I would avoid in the daily games.
Rishard Matthews (DK – $5,700/FD – $6,100): Matthews missed last week's game with a hamstring issue. Headed into Friday, Matthews hasn't been able to practice pointing to another missed game. He has one game with over 100 yards receiving, which came in Week 11 vs. the Steelers (5/113/1). On the year, Matthews averages 6.8 targets per game. Too much injury risk for the daily games.
Mohamed Sanu (DK – $5,600/FD – $6,100): Sanu has a TD in four of his last five games while averaging only 5.4 targets per game. Last week his TD came via the pass with Mohamed on the throwing end. Sanu has fewer than 75 yards receiving in nine of his ten games. He’ll have an edge over CB Terence Newman, but his targets tend to fall in a weak area for this salary level.
Demaryius Thomas (DK – $5,300/FD – $6.700): Thomas has five catches or more in eight of his ten games while averaging 8.7 targets per game. Demaryius has fewer than 75 yards receiving in his last six games with three TDs coming in his last four games. His best game came in Week 6 (10/133). Miami is 13th in the league against WRs (112/1571/11 on 169 targets). Keenan Allen (9/100) is the only WR with 100 yards receiving, which came in Week 1. The top three WRs vs. the Dolphins over the last three weeks had these games: Devin Funchess – 5/92/2, Mike Evans – 5/92, and Brandin Cooks – 6/83/1). Winnable matchup at his price point. I like the change to Trevor Siemian at QB.
Marqise Lee (DK – $5,200/FD – $6,000): Lee had his worst game in Week 12 (1/13 on two targets) since opening day (0/0). Over his previous five games, Marqise average 9.6 targets per game with four steady games (5/83, 4/72, 8/75/1, and 6/55/1). In Week 7, he had four catches for 72 yards on six targets against the Colts. Indy is 22nd in the NFL against WRs (127/1927/8 on 227 targets). Three WRs have over 100 yards receiving against the Colts (J.J. Nelson – 5/120/1, Marquise Goodwin – 5/116, and Allen Hurns – 5/101). One of the Jaguars’ WRs should come in this week after Blake Bortles had his best game passing vs. this defense (330/1).
Sammy Watkins (DK – $5,200/FD – $6,400): Watkins has a TD in three of his last four games while receiving a season high nine targets in Week 12. He finished with four catches for 82 yards and a TD vs. the Saints. His only game of value came in Week 3 (6/106/2). Over his last eight games, Watkins only has 15 combined passes. He had three catches for 42 yards in Week 7 vs. the Cardinals. His matchup with CB Patrick Peterson is unfavorable. Fade.
Ted Ginn (DK – $5,100/FD – $5,500): Ginn has been active in the last two games (6/87 and 7/71) while receiving a season high 11 targets in Week 12. Ted has been steady in five of his last seven games (4/66/1, 7/141, 4/59/1, 6/87, and 7/71) while averaging 5.4 targets per game over this stretch. Ginn has two catches for 44 yards and a TD on three targets in Week 3 vs. the Panthers. Very winnable matchup vs. CB Daryl Worley. Sneaky piece of the Brees' stack.
Corey Davis (DK – $5,100/FD – $5,900): Davis failed to take advantage of an improved opportunity in Week 12 with Rishard Matthews injured. He caught all four of his targets for 39 yards while being on the field for 42 of 58 plays run by Tennessee. Over his last four games, Corey has 13 catches for 142 yards on 26 targets. Houston stopped the bleeding at WR in the last two games (ARI – 14/145/1 and BAL – 9/91) after getting lit up in two of the previous three games (SEA – 19/333/2 and LAR – 18/271/3). Overall, WRs have 123 catches for 1,846 yards and 13 TDs on 199 targets against the Texans. I placed my upside bet on Davis last week so he'll probably come in this week when I'm running for cover.
Emmanuel Sanders (DK – $4,900/FD – $6,500): Sanders sucked the life out of Fantasy teams over the last month with three disaster games (1/30, 2/15, and 3/12) sandwich around a nice game vs. the Patriots (6/137). His only other game of value came in Week 2 (6/62/2). Part of his problem has been QB plays and the other his lack of his health due to an ankle issue. Emmanuel has an edge over CB Cordrea Tankersley with better play from the QB. Bounce back game expected, but he'll need a TD to work at this level.
T.Y. Hilton (DK – $4,800/FD – $7,000): Hilton has more strikeouts than HRs over his last eight games. Over this period, T.Y. has two plus games (7/177 and 5/175/) while almost failing to match his top two games combined (3/30, 1/19, 2/27, 2/15, 2/23, and 2/15). He averages 6.7 targets per game with no success against the Jaguars in his first matchup (2/27). Jacksonville remains the top defense in the league vs. WRs (96/1119/2 on 193 targets). Pure avoid unless you want to be on an island.
DeSean Jackson (DK – $4,700/FD – $6,200): Jackson still doesn't have an impact game in 2017. He was more active in the passing game in two of his last three starts (10 and 11 targets) leading to playable games in the season long contests (6/82 and 8/60). His best two games came in Week 3 (4/84/1) and Week 5 (5/106). DeSean has three TDs while averaging 7.2 targets per game. His matchup is favorable vs. CB Davon House if Jameis Winston find his passing rhythm this week. Jackson is listed as questionable for this week’s game with a foot issue.
Kenny Stills (DK – $4,700/FD – $5,400): After his impact game (7/180/1), Kenny only had three catches for 47 yards on six targets last week. His only other game of value came in Week 7 (6/85/2). Over his last six games, Kenny averaged 7.5 targets per game. The Broncos will be without starting CB Aqib Talib, which is big win for Stills. Big play WR who is very active for a WR3. More of an against the grain play.
Zay Jones (DK – $4,600/FD – $4,500): Jones is a much-improved player over the last three games (6/53/1, 4/68, and 3/33/1) with 24 combined targets. Over the last two games, he's been on the field for about 85 percent of offensive snaps by the Bills. The Patriots are 28th vs. WRs (151/2047/10 on 245 targets). Six teams have over 200 yards receiving against the Patriots. His matchup is great vs. CB Stephon Gilmore who is playing against his former team. Coin flip only. More of a value at Fanduel especially in a chaser game.
DeVante Parker (DK – $4,500/FD – $6,100): Parker has been missing in action in his last two games (4/26 and 1/5). Devante hasn't scored a TD since Week 3 (8/76/1). He has five games with over 60 yards receiving with close to nine targets per game in his best games. This week he has a neutral matchup with CB Bradley Roby unless the Dolphins move him to get favorable coverage. Price in playable range, but we may have to wait another week for him to finally pay off.
Jordy Nelson (DK – $4,400/FD – $6,400): This week I had a conversation with Adam Ronis about the projections for Nelson on Sirius Radio. He was surprised by my confidence based on his empty stats over his last five games (1/13, 4/35, 3/20, 2/24, and 3/11) while averaging only 5.2 targets per game. Over his first four full games, Jordy scored six TDs. His matchup against CB Brent Grimes is favorable and his pay off bar only requires five catches for 60 yards and a TD. Twelve WRs have six catches or more against the Bucs and 13 WRs have a TD. I'm pushing all in here as I believe in Nelson and his matchup.
Jermain Kearse (DK – $4,300/FD – $5,800): Kearse had his best game of the season last week (7/105/1) with a season high 11 targets. This came after four small games (1/29/1, 2/14, 2/38, and 4/35) with 23 combined targets. His other game of value came in Week 2 (4/64/2). On the year, Jermaine averages 6.6 targets per game. He's listed as questionable for this week's game with shoulder issue. Kearse may offer upside in Week 13 based on the risk in the Chiefs’ secondary.
Corey Coleman (DK – $4,300/FD – $5,800): Over the last two games, Coleman has 11 catches for 144 yards on 19 targets. He did drop a long TD last week, which would have filled his salary bucket. This week with Josh Gordon back in the starting lineup, he'll have a drop down in opportunity. The Chargers are just above league average defending WRs (129/1409/10 on 215 targets). LA has two strong outside CBs helped by a strong pass rush to close the passing window. Corey should avoid CB Casey Hayward who should cover Gordon if he plays. The Browns' WRs look like value plays this week and this offense may play better than expected. Not a target, but worth a piece in the Kizer stack in the millionaire maker.
Dede Westbrook (DK – $4,100/FD – $4,700): If this was a horse race, Westbrook would be a strong play in his third race back from a layoff. Last week he had six catches for 41 yards on ten targets while being on the field for 78 percent of the offensive plays run by the Jaguars as the WR3. The Colts have allowed the most passes over 20 yards (48 – six by Jacksonville in Week 7) with ten of those plays going for more than 40 yards. Dede will have an edge in deep speed over all CBs on Indy. Possible 100+ yards with a TD, which puts him as strong play at this level.
Josh Gordon (DK – $4,100/FD – $5.800): At the end of 2013, Gordon was the best WRs in the game after a monster run mid-season (5/125/1, 14/237/1, 10/261/2, and 7/151/1). He's missed more than three seasons trying to get his life back in order. His resume says clear value, but it may take a game or two for him to get up to game speed and find his rhythm with DeShone Kizer. His salary is going to move quickly, but it only works if he productive along the way. In the mix based on his talent, but he will draw tough coverage by Casey Hayward if he plays (death in the family).
Mike Wallace (DK – $4,000/FD – $5,800): Wallace had a season high 11 targets in Week 12, but he only caught five balls for 48 yards. He did score a TD in his two previous games with short production (4/19/1 and 4/56/1) with 11 combined targets. His best two games came in Week 4 (6/55/1) and Week 5 (3/133). On the year, Mike averages only 4.5 targets per game. The Lions rank 10th vs. WRs (137/1658/8 on 220 targets). His matchup against CB Darius Slay points minimal upside.
Marquise Goodwin (DK – $4,000/FD – $5,300): Goodwin has over 75 yards receiving in three of his last five games, but he has four catches or fewer in ten of his 11 games. His only TD came in Week 10 (1/83/1). On the year, Marquise averages 5.6 targets per game. The Bears are league average defending WRs (124/1627/10 on 204 targets). The change at QB should help his value, but his game is still built on big plays. Not ideal due to his low catch rate (43.5).
Cordarrelle Patterson (DK – $3,400/FD – $5,500): Patterson doesn't look like much on paper in 2017 (21 catches for 186 yards on 27 targets). His best success actually came in the run game (10/124/2). With Michael Crabtree getting the week off and Amari Cooper expected to miss this week's game, Cordarrelle should get a chance to start. He's been battling a hip issue, which puts him on the injured list in Week 13. His resume is short in the NFL with minimal impact games, but he does have big play and scoring ability. The Giants placed their top CB Janoris Jenkins on IR this week pointing to a dance with CB Eli Apple. New York has risk vs. WRs (20th – 125/1733/10 on 203 targets). I like him a lot at the back end of the WR pool and a TD with solid yards should be in the cards. If you are shopping at this level, Patterson is one of the better options on the board in Week 13.