I really don’t like this pitching tonight on this slate. Of course you can throw Kershaw, but my only worry is how deep they’ll let him go coming off the DL. Quintana is a gpp flyer, with the Mets not having much power righties. Flaherty just saw this Pirates team, and had a decent outing, so he’s viable as well. I’m using just 2 pitchers tonight, both listed below.
NOLA – he’s been excellent limiting power to LHB with only a 19.8% hard contact while also inducing a 54.9% groundball rate. RHB are striking out at a 33.6% rate and hitting just .186. Top pitcher with Kershaw coming off the DL. Strikeout upside as well, as the the Dodgers come in with a 22.6% k rate over the past week. (Risk factor 3)
Bieber – This kid has elite skills, with some Indians beat writers comparing him to Kluber. He’s been nasty in the minors this year. In Columbus, he’s struck out 31 batters in 34.1 innings, a 1.05 era, and is coming off a rain shortened no hitter. Not to mention today is his birthday. There should be no limitations as far as pitch count, so the kid should have a chance to show off his stuff. (Risk factor 5)
SEATTLE – I’m going back to the well tonight. Another lefty on the mound in Mike Minor who’s allowed a .285 average, 9 home runs, and 45.5% hard contact to RHB. Seager has also been reverse splits this year hitting lefties at a .274 clip with 2 HR. (Segura – Haniger – Seager – Cruz)
TEXAS LEFTIES – Yes, I know Leblanc is a lefty, but he’s shown reverse splits this year. Over the past 10 days Texas is tied for the most home runs off LHP at 7, while also hitting .263. Odor, Mazara, Guzman, and Choo have hit for a combined .356 avg and 6 HR. It’s contrarian and doubt many will go this route. This will be the slate killer tonight. (Odor – Mazara – Choo – Guzman)
NYY – chalk stack of the night. Get creative, but make sure Bird is in your stack.
CLEVELAND LEFTIES – another chalk stack. All lefties are in play here, while adding Encarnacion as well.
SD RIGHTIES – Chen has struggled on the road vs RHB. He’s allowed a .324 average, 4 Hr and a 57.6% fly ball rate. Renfroe is back and Villanueva is mashing at .358 and 10 HR. Add in Reyes and Galvis who has some bvp and you have a late night hammer stack. (Villanueva- Renfroe – Reyes – Galvis)