Pitcher risk 1 being low and 10 being high
Hardy (home vs CWS) Small sample size but, has been beaten up at home allowing a .429 avg to LHB and a .357 avg to RHB at home. He had the same problem last year allowing over a .300 avg to both splits at home as well. There a lot of power in this Chicago lineup, and this seams like a smash spot for them. As a team, they’re hitting .263 over the last 10 days vs LHP.
* CWS Stack Abreu – Anderson – Rondon – Palka – Davidson
Hernandez (home vs Wash) Young kid with talent who’s made only 2 starts so far this year. He’s allowed a 50% hard contact to righties at home, and 42.1% to lefties. He also has one of the lowest k rates on the slate only striking out around 11% to LHB and 12% to RHB. Harper is always dangerous, so is Adams. Soto is another lefty bat to add in this stack.
* Washington LHB stack and Trea Harper – Adams – Soto – Turner
Shields (away vs Det) Shields has actually been pretty good over his last 2 starts. Over 14.1 innings pitched, he’s allowed only 8 hits, and 3 runs while stirrings out 13 batters. On the year he’s limiting LHB to a .173 avg and only a 24.4% hard contact. I don’t think playing shields is necessary, but i’m fading Detroit bats here today as i think he can limit their damage.
* Pitcher to use (risk factor 6)
Chacin (home vs NYM) Chacin has been really good at home this year. 1.95 avg, 1.59 era and a 21.5% k rate. On top of that, over his last 2 starts he’s only given up a .105 avg and only 1 ER over 12 innings pitched. I know the Mets have been good over the past week against RHP, but I do think Chacin handles this lineup and performs well. If Nimmo or Conforto are out, i’d feel a little more comfortable.
* Pitcher to use (Risk factor 6)
Wheeler (away vs Mil) He’s been a little bit better on the road with a 3.27 Era, and .214 avg. What’s impressive is his 25.9% contact rate on the road, 52.7% ground ball rate and 28% k rate. Combine that with Milwaukee’s 26.7% k rate over the past week, and Wheeler should be able to get in the 7-9 range of strikeouts. I trust Wheeler a little bit more on the road, and if he can work his way around Aguilar and Cain, he should be fine.
* Pitcher to use (Risk factor 5)
Taillon (home vs STL) Over his last 2 starts, he been shelled by LHB. Lefties are hitting .360 with 3 Home Runs, 7 ER, and a 45% hard contact. Carpenter would be my lock button here in this game, followed by Fowler and Wong. I Carp/Fowler mini stack, especially if Fowler is moved to leadoff would be the exposure you’d want.
* STL lefties Carpenter – Fowler – Wong
Tanaka (home vs LAA) There is some weather issues here that we’ll want to check on before lock. He has been hammered in 3 of 4 home starts this year. Righties are hitting him with a 44% hard contact at home, .283 avg, and 9 ER. This lineup is full of RHB, led by the games best player. This is a bad spot for Tanaka, the Angels as a team are hitting over .280 as a team against RHP on the road over the past week. Now, i don’t think I’m attacking either side here, and hope that when LA does score runs its on singles and Sac fly’s rather than HR.
* Fading either side
Pivetta (home vs TOR) He’s been great at home, allowing only 2 home runs in 36 innings pitched. On top of that, Pivetta is striking out 30.7% of batters at home, while also limiting had contact at 23.1%. He mixes in a slider, which has been Toronto’s achilles heel. Against the pitch, hitters average .059 with a 45.5% k rate. I love the spot for him and hope the weather clears enough to use him.
* Pitcher to use (Risk factor 4)
Richards (away vs NYY) Richards got blasted at home against this same team earlier in the year. Righties are hitting him at a 41.9% hard contact, and .245 average. Yankees are the hottest team in the league vs RHP over the past week hitting 15 home runs and a .287 average. I don’t think Richards last more than 3 innings here today. The bottom of this Yankee lineup is producing, and its a gauntlet to run through as a pitcher.
* NYY RHB stack Torres – Judge – Sanchez – Stanton – Andujar
Foltynewicz (away vs BOS) Looking like its going to be cool in Boston today with temps are 50 degrees, but theres also some rain in the forecast. Folty has been great on the road with a 2.03 era, and .200 avg. He’s really limited righties on the road with a .182 avg, so if he were to get in trouble it would be from a LHB like Moreland or Benintendi. I really don’t like either side of this game here, and weather could definitely play an issue.
* Fading either side here
Gausman (away vs TAM) He faced them 2 weeks at home going 7.1 innings while striking out 6 and has actually been good in 5 of his last 6 starts. His whip is up a bit with him allowing a lot of hits, but he’s done a good job on the road stranding runners with an 87.2% left on base. His hard contact the road has been great with a 28.7%. I don’t roster Gausman often, but i do like the spot for him today. Especially with Tampa trading away their table setter Span.
*Pitcher to use (Risk factor 4)
Happ (away vs PHILLY) Away from Rogers Centre J.A. Happ has been nasty with a .091 avg to LHB and .185 to RHB. His k rate is great on the road at 30.1%. Combine that with Philly’s 23.9% k rate vs LHP over the past 10 days and this spot should be a smash one for Happ. In his career, Happ has gone 24.1 innings, allowed only 3 ER and struck out 15.
*Pitcher to use (Risk factor 3)
Mikoloas (away vs PIT) Mikolas has been one of the best pitchers in May with a 0.99 era, 19 strikeouts, 3 ER in 27.1 innings pitched. He’s coming off a complete game against KC, where he struck out 9 and allowed only 4 hits. He’s dominant against RHB allowing only a .181 avg. If this was a home start i wouldn’t be worried. the ONLY thing that worries me is his hard contact vs LHB at 40% and .274 avg. Pittsburgh is loaded with LHB, and even though he has already faced them in Pittsburgh this year, its still risky for me, especially at his price tag. He’s still good enough to keep me off Pitt, but i don’t think i want to take the chance with his price.
*Fading either side here
Bauer (home vs HOU) Bauer has been hit a little bit more at home this year with a 40.2% hard contact and .225 avg. He’s limited home runs this year, but has allowed 10 of his 17 earned runs at home. It’s the RHB that tend to hit him hardest at home at 45% HH. Although i do think Bauer is susceptible of allowing runs, i don’t want to target him with bats. I think his upside is limited to some degree with Houston, but he can also be a pitcher to use with some risk.
*Pitcher to use (Risk factor 6)
Strasburg (away vs MIA)I have said this all year. I do not throw top pitchers against this Marlins team. I don’t know what it is, but it seems like when top arms go against them, they play better and hit them. This team is extremely pesky, and we saw what they did to Max a few nights ago. With that being said, Stras has been a little bitter on the road with a 2.33 era. The only problem is his hard contact rises up to 38%. Yes, he can be used but i don’t think his price tag fits what you may get from him. I’m fading both sides here
*Fading either side here
Cole (away vs CLE) He’s been so good this year and even better on the road. a 1.32 era, .150 avg, 38.7% k rate. Combine those stats with Cleveland’s 23.7% k rate over the past week, this spot is great for Cole. Cleveland is also hitting at a .214 clip over the past week against RHP as well. Yes, there is some risk here with top always dangerous top of this lineup, but i think he rolls through them today.
* Pitcher to use (Risk factor 3)
Sale (home vs ATL) This is a matchup i really want to see. On one side, Atlanta over the past 14 days has hit .296 with 6 HR against LHP. While Sale at home this year has allowed a 1.96 era, a .200 avg and 32.6% k rate. Again, it’s going to be a cool 50 degrees for this game so advantage does to Sale with that. The spot is good for Sale and dangerous at the same time. If Atlanta can work deep into counts, Sale could be limited with pitch count and strikeouts. I’ll have a share of Sale today, and hope he can dominate the lefties.
*Pitcher to use (Risk factor 3)