Seattle Seahawks Team Outlook
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Seahawks Offense Outlook
Sensing decline in their defense, Seattle turns to their rushing attack in 2018 to help control the clock. They ran the ball 55.6 percent of the time with league-low pass attempts per game (26.7). Their direction of the offense points to more success passing the ball in 2019 while continuing to create plenty of yards on the ground.
In 2017, Wilson was the best QB in the land. His top ranking came via a rebound in his value in the run game (95/586/3) while matching his career high in passing TDs (34). Last year Russell saw his pass attempts fall by about 23 percent (427 – 553), but he still produced a career-high in passing TDs (35) with minimal mistakes (seven Ints). Surprisingly in a top-ranked rushing offense, he failed to score a rushing TD with a career low in production (67/376). Over seven years in the NFL, Wilson has a 75-36-1 record with one Super Bowl title. He passed for over 300 yards in one game. Russell finished with three TDs or more in seven contests.
His offensive line allowed six sacks in three different games leading to a career high in sacks (51). If he had 550 pass attempts in 2018, Wilson would have been a path for 65 sacks.
In this season’s draft, Seattle added size and speed to the wide receiver position. The Seahawks still lack a viable pass catching TE, and they have limited upside in pass-catching at the RB position. In 2019, the Seahawks will be more explosive on offense with a rebound in passing attempts. Wilson may only average 30 passes per game, which points to a push back to 4,000+ passing yards. His passing TDs will remain elite with 80+ rushes for 450+ yards and some value in TDs on the ground. I view him as a top-five QB this year while being slightly undervalued on draft day.
Other Options: Geno Smith, Paxton Lynch
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In his rookie season, Penny gained only 494 combined yards with two TDs and nine catches while watching Chris Carson shine in too many games. Seattle didn’t give him a start all year. Hs best success came in Week 10 (12/108/1), which was helped by a long run. During the year, Penny battled an ankle and knee issue while playing overweight most of the season.
In 2016, Penny gained 1,242 combined yards with 14 TDs and 15 catches while receiving 141 combined touches. San Diego State worked him hard in his senior year leading to 308 touches for 2,383 combined yards with 25 TDs and 19 catches. Even more impressive in his college career was his eight kicks returned for TDs. Rashaad average 30.2 yards over his 81 kickoffs leading to 2,449 yards and seven TDs while also returning one of his two career punt returns for a TD.
His success was helped by poor defensive play at the second and third levels of defenses in his conference, which won’t be the case in the NFL. Penny follows his blockers well while running with patience. He has an uncanny feel to hit the gas at the right time to create big windows in the run game. His experience in the passing game is limited, but Rashaad is going to be a tough cover for linebackers. Most of his highlight came from explosive plays. Penny still has to have vision and acceleration to finish his opportunities. There’s a lot to like here even with much smaller lanes to run through in Seattle.
Penny’s 2019 Fantasy Outlook
The sharp Fantasy owners in the high-stakes market have Penny in almost a dead heat with Chris Carson in the draft room. Rashaad looks to be in top shape setting the stage for 250+ touches for 1,200+ yards with double-digit TDs and 25+ catches. If he wins the starting job and stays healthy, Penny will be a top 12 back this season.
Heading into 2018, I didn’t expect Carson to offer consistent, playable value at the running back position. In his 14 starts, Chris finished with 1,314 combined yards with nine TDs, and 20 catches to rank 15th at the RB position in PPR league (about a top 12 back if he played a full season). Chris averaged 4.7 yards per rush with eight runs over 20 yards. His best value came in six games (32/124/1 with two catches, 19/127 with two catches, 25/124/1 with two catches, 22/148/1 with six catches, 27/116/2, and 19/129/1 with one catch).
After a slow start in Week 1 (7/79 with three catches) and Week 2 (6/24), Carson averaged 22.1 touches per game in his next 11 full contests.
In the offseason, he had minor knee surgery, which puts him behind the other Seahawks’ backs heading into training camp. Even with a great 2018 season, Carson isn’t a lock to be Seattle’s top RB this year with their first-round draft choice (Rashaad Penny) chomping at the bit to start.
Carson’s 2019 Fantasy Outlook
Last year the Seahawks’ RBs combined for 2,693 yards with 16 TDs and 68 catches on 535 touches. This production doesn’t seem repeatable even with two good RBs on the roster. I’m going to avoid the trap of buying the previous season’s stats, but lowering Carson’s projections to 200 touches for 900 combined yards with five to seven TDs and minimal upside in catches. I’m banking on his price point on draft day being too high for his 2019 opportunity.
Other Options: J.D. McKissic, C.J. Prosise, Travis Homer, Bo Scarbrough, Marcelias Sutton
There was a lot to like about Lockett’s game in 2018 expect his opportunity (only 70 targets – 4.375 per game). He caught 81.4 percent of his chances, which led to career highs in catches (57), receiving yards (965), TDs (10), and yards per catch (16.9). Tyler only had one game with more than six targets and no games with higher than five catches. His ability to score TDs helped his playable value while delivering only one game (5/107/1) with more than 20 Fantasy points in PPR leagues.
Last year the Seahawks’ WRs only had 160 catches for 2,350 yards and 24 TDs on 234 targets. The addition of D.K. Metcalf should force the defense to defend two players in the deep passing game. With Doug Baldwin no longer an option at WR, it makes sense for Lockett to become a more attractive option in the passing game. With 75+ catches, Lockett should gain 1,100+ yards with eight to ten TDs. His downside risk in targets forces me to think of him as an explosive WR3 even though the Fantasy market will price him as WR2.
Most yards per 🎯 for WRs in 2018 (minimum 70 targets):
Tyler Locket 13.79
Mike Evans 11.04
Tyreek Hill 10.89
TY Hilton 10.58
DeSean Jackson 10.46
Josh Gordon 10.38
Brandin Cooks 10.29
Julio Jones 9.86
DeAndre Hopkins 9.86
D.J. Moore 9.61#NFL #FantasyFootball
— Kyle Richardson (@krich1532) June 28, 2019
When searching for the next great WR in the NFL, a Fantasy owner needs to see production along with talent. Metcalf is a physical specimen with a great combination of size (6’3” and 228 lbs., speed (4.33 40 at the NFL combine), and strength (27 reps in the 225 lbs. bench press at the combine). His hands great well leading to many one-handed catches along with winning battles in tight coverage in the end zone.
D.K. can beat a defense deep, but he has the look of a long strider while lacking experience and the resume over the short to middle areas of the field. Over his last two seasons at Ole Mississippi, Metcalf caught 65 passes for 1,228 yards and 12 TDs over 19 games. He’s missed time in two of his three seasons in college. His next step is developing his route running while proving his frame isn’t too tightly wound to handle the battles at the next level.
Metcalf’s 2019 Fantasy Outlook
Seattle is going to use Metcalf as a deep threat on the outside in his rookie season while also trying to get him in space on slants and bubble screens to allow his speed and strength to make big plays. His presence can only be a positive to the run game and the rebound value of Russell Wilson. I don’t expect a high catch total in 2019, but D.K. will have shining moments this year. Possible 55+ catches for 800+ yards and a chance at double-digit TDs if he develops a scoring rhythm with Wilson in the red zone.
In 2017, Jennings worked as a possession receiver for West Virginia leading to 97 catches for 1,096 yards and one TD. Last year his usage had a complete flip where he became more of a threat in the deep passing game with scoring ability (54/917/13). His movements and hands point to him seizing/developing into the Doug Baldwin role in Seattle’s offense. Gary needs to work on his overall route running, but his hands projects as assets. His combination skill set (possession/deep passing) points to 60+ catches for 750+ yards with a chance to surprise in TDs. Right kind of flier with his draft valued expected to gain momentum over the summer.
Other Options: Jaron Brown, John Ursua, Malik Turner, Amara Darboh, Keenan Reynolds
In his third season in the NFL, Vannett set career highs in catches (29), receiving yards (269), TDs (3), and targets (43) with one game of value (6/52/1).
Nick has plus quickness with excellent hands. His route running needs improvement as well as his blocking skills. Vannett has the foundation to be a three-down tight end with upside in pass catching when he develops his skill set. Over four seasons at Ohio State, he caught 55 passes for 585 yards and six TDs.
Last year the TEs for Seattle caught 50 passes for 591 yards and eight TDs in 71 targets. Tough to trust in the Fantasy market while being the Seahawks’ top TE option heading into 2019.
Other Options: George Fant, Ed Dickson, Jacob Hollister, Tyrone Swoopes, Justin Johnson
In his three full seasons as a kicker in the NFL, Myers made 86 of 104 field goals highlighted by his 2018 year (33-for-36). Last year he made six of seven kicks from 50 yards or more with 16 of his 26 tries crossing the uprights from long range in his career. Over four seasons, Jason missed 15 of his 121 extra points, which is an area he needs to improve on. Last year Seattle scored 52 TDs while creating 27 field goal tries. Possible back-end top 12 kicker with more upside if Seattle has growth on offense as expected.
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